USTCUSDT Market Overview: 24-Hour Breakdown and Bearish Pressure

• Price declined from 0.01136 to 0.01104 over 24 hours, reflecting bearish momentum and a key 15-minute breakdown.
• Volume surged during the 09:00–12:00 ET session, with price action diverging from turnover, signaling potential exhaustion.
• RSI and MACD indicated overbought conditions early before confirming a bearish crossover by the 05:00 ET window.
• Bollinger Bands narrowed before a sharp expansion post-04:00 ET, highlighting increased volatility.
• A 0.01127 support level was repeatedly tested but failed, suggesting further downside risk.

TerraClassicUSD/Tether (USTCUSDT) opened at 0.01131 at 12:00 ET − 1 and traded between 0.01137 (high) and 0.01101 (low) before closing at 0.01112 at 12:00 ET. Total volume for the 24-hour period was 70.34 million, while turnover reached $646,562. The pair faced consistent bearish pressure, especially during the overnight Asian session, with key support and resistance levels tested multiple times.

Structure & Formations

Price action revealed a breakdown in the 0.01127–0.01132 range over multiple 15-minute candles, with bearish engulfing patterns forming after 04:00 ET. A long lower shadow at 05:30 ET hinted at temporary support but failed to reverse the downward trend. A notable bearish divergence emerged between price and RSI in the 06:00–09:00 ET window, indicating weakening bearish momentum.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, price fell below both the 20-period and 50-period moving averages after 04:00 ET, confirming a short-term bearish bias. On the daily chart, the 50-period and 200-period moving averages remain well above the current price, signaling a potential continuation of the medium-term downtrend. The 100-period MA is also bearish aligned with the 200-period.

MACD & RSI

The MACD crossed below the signal line at 05:00 ET, confirming bearish momentum. The RSI dropped from overbought to neutral territory within 90 minutes, with a reading of 52 at the 12:00 ET close, suggesting moderate equilibrium but no immediate oversold conditions. Both indicators suggest that bears remain in control, though exhaustion may be near as divergence appears.

Bollinger Bands

Price remained within the lower third of the Bollinger Bands for much of the 24-hour period, with a contraction between 23:00 and 04:00 ET followed by a sharp expansion. This volatility expansion coincided with the price breaking below the 0.01127 level, suggesting a continuation of the downward move.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked between 09:00 and 12:00 ET, with the highest 15-minute turnover occurring at 09:15 ET when price hit 0.0111. Despite the volume spike, price failed to close above the 0.01115 level, indicating weak follow-through. This divergence between volume and price suggests a potential consolidation or reversal in the near term, but only if the 0.01109 level holds.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the recent 0.01136–0.01101 swing, the 0.01123 (38.2%) level acted as a short-term resistance but was pierced by 06:00 ET. The 61.8% level at 0.01115 appears to be a key psychological barrier. On the daily chart, retracement levels suggest a possible bounce from the 0.01109 support if bears pull back.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy could involve a long bias when price retests the 0.01109 level with a volume increase and RSI crossing above 50. This setup would target a retest of the 0.01115–0.01127 range as a medium-term reversal pattern. A stop loss below 0.01104 would provide risk control, with a target of 0.01133. If applied over the past 30 days, this strategy would likely test its effectiveness in a choppy market, but could offer a manageable risk-to-reward ratio if the 0.01127 level shows buying interest again.