USTCUSDT Market Overview – 2025-10-08

• Price opened at $0.01081, peaked at $0.01114, and closed at $0.01076 with a bearish 1.45% decline.
• Volatility spiked during a 15-minute candle at 14:15 ET, breaking out to a high of $0.01108 amid increased volume.
• RSI hit oversold territory near 30, suggesting a potential rebound, but MACD remained bearish with a narrowing histogram.
• Bollinger Bands showed expansion following the breakout, with price testing the upper band before retreating.
• Volume and turnover diverged near the close, with high volume but muted price movement, hinting at possible consolidation.

TerraClassicUSD/Tether (USTCUSDT) traded between $0.01029 and $0.01114 over the last 24 hours, closing at $0.01076 on 12:00 ET after opening at $0.01081. The pair experienced a total volume of 115,486,210.0 and a notional turnover of $1,226,830.64. The price action was characterized by a mid-day breakout attempt and a gradual retracement toward key support levels.

Structure & Formations

The price formed a bearish engulfing pattern near the $0.01085–$0.01076 range, indicating a potential reversal of bullish momentum. A large bearish candle at 18:30 ET (10/7) opened the door to further declines, with price dropping below key psychological support at $0.01065. A doji appeared near the $0.01055 level, signaling indecision and a possible pause in the downward move. The intraday low of $0.01029 represents a critical support level that could see renewed testing in the near term.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, price remained below both the 20 and 50-period SMAs for much of the session, reinforcing the bearish bias. The 50-period SMA crossed below the 20-period SMA at the 4:15 AM ET mark, confirming a short-term bearish crossover. On the daily chart, the 50 and 100-period SMAs appear to be converging, suggesting the market is approaching a potential inflection point.

MACD & RSI

MACD turned bearish after 18:30 ET, with the line crossing below the signal line amid a widening histogram. While it later flattened, the indicator remained negative, indicating bearish momentum. RSI dipped to oversold levels near 30 at the end of the session but did not show a strong rebound, suggesting that the bearish trend could persist. A reversal above $0.0108 could trigger a test of the RSI’s 50–60 range, where overbought conditions may develop.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands widened significantly following the breakout attempt, with price briefly spiking above the upper band before retreating. This expansion suggests an increase in market uncertainty and volatility. The closing price at $0.01076 sits just above the 20-period SMA and within the lower half of the bands, indicating a potential continuation of bearish pressure unless the price breaks above the upper band again.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged during the breakout attempt at 14:15 ET, with a spike in notional turnover aligning with the move to $0.01108. However, as the price declined, volume dropped off, indicating a lack of follow-through from bullish traders. A divergence between price and volume was noted near the closing hours, with high volume and minimal price movement—suggesting that the market may be consolidating ahead of the next move.

Fibonacci Retracements

The recent swing from the high of $0.01114 to the low of $0.01029 saw the price retrace to the 61.8% level at approximately $0.01078, where it found temporary resistance. The 38.2% level at $0.01093 failed to hold, reinforcing the bearish outlook. On the daily chart, a key 61.8% retracement level at $0.01065 has been repeatedly tested and could serve as a potential floor in the near term.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest strategy involves entering a short position on USTCUSDT when the price breaks below the 20-period SMA on the 15-minute chart, confirmed by a bearish engulfing candle and an RSI reading below 40. The stop-loss is placed just above the upper Bollinger Band, while the take-profit is aligned with the 61.8% Fibonacci level. The strategy assumes continued bearish momentum and weak volume confirmation during rebounds. This approach may be particularly effective in low-volatility environments where retracements are more likely to fail at key technical levels.