USTCUSDT Market Overview – 2025-10-04

• TerraClassicUSD/Tether (USTCUSDT) fell below key support of $0.01145 amid bearish volume spikes.
• Price action showed weak momentum on the 15-minute MACD and oversold RSI around 25.
• Volatility expanded with wide Bollinger Bands as price hovered near lower band for most of the session.
• A bearish engulfing pattern formed at 17:00 ET, signaling potential continuation of the downtrend.
• Turnover reached $109.2 million, with volume surging during key price breakouts and breakdowns.

TerraClassicUSD/Tether (USTCUSDT) opened at $0.01143 on 2025-10-03 at 12:00 ET and closed at $0.01128 as of 12:00 ET on 2025-10-04. The 24-hour range spanned $0.01163 to $0.01112, with total volume of 149,452,290 USD and notional turnover of $109.2 million. The pair showed a bearish bias, especially during the 16:00–19:00 ET window.

Structure & Formations

Price action revealed a bearish bias as USTCUSDT tested and broke key support at $0.01145 during the 17:00–18:00 ET window. A bearish engulfing candle formed at 17:00 ET, confirming the breakdown. Later in the session, the pair consolidated near the lower Bollinger Band, with a doji near $0.01128 indicating potential exhaustion in the short-term downtrend. Resistance at $0.01145–$0.01146 appears to have failed, while the next support target is likely $0.01125–$0.01120.

Moving Averages & Momentum

On the 15-minute chart, the 20SMA and 50SMA crossed below price, with the 50SMA now acting as dynamic resistance near $0.01138–$0.01140. The MACD showed bearish divergence during the 16:00–19:00 ET window, while the RSI reached oversold territory at 25 during the 02:00–04:00 ET session. This suggests potential for a short-term bounce, although the overall trend remains bearish. On the daily timeframe, the 50DMA and 200DMA are both above price, confirming a medium-term downtrend.

Volatility & Turnover

Volatility expanded during the breakdown at $0.01145, with Bollinger Bands widening significantly. Price remained within the lower 10–15% of the bands for most of the session, indicating weak momentum. Volume surged during key breakdown and consolidation phases, with the largest spike occurring at $0.01149 during the 17:00–18:00 ET window. Turnover and volume moved in tandem, suggesting a more liquid and directional move rather than manipulative activity.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to the $0.01163–$0.01145 swing, the 50% level at $0.01154 acted as a short-term resistance that failed to hold. The $0.01145–$0.01146 level (38.2% retrace) became a new support zone. On the broader $0.01163–$0.01112 swing, the 61.8% level at $0.01126 is a likely area of interest for short-term buyers. Price may test this level in the coming 24 hours, with a possible bounce or further breakdown depending on volume and momentum.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy could focus on identifying key breakout and breakdown levels using the 50SMA and 200SMA crossover as entry triggers, combined with RSI readings below 30 or above 70 for momentum confirmation. Short entries could be triggered when the price closes below the 50SMA with RSI below 30, and stops could be placed at the recent swing high or Bollinger Band upper bound. Given the bearish engulfing pattern and weak RSI readings, a short trade initiated near $0.01146 with a stop at $0.01154 and a target at $0.01125 would align with today’s price action and technical indicators.