USTCUSDT Market Overview: 2025-10-03

• The TerraClassicUSD/Tether (USTCUSDT) pair traded in a narrow range today, with a marginal 0.36% increase.
• Price briefly tested the 0.01158 resistance before retracting, indicating weak bullish conviction.
• Bollinger Bands showed a mild contraction during overnight hours, hinting at potential volatility expansion.
• Volume spiked around 19:45 ET, aligning with a key high, but failed to confirm a breakout.
• RSI remained in mid-range territory, showing no signs of overbought or oversold conditions.

TerraClassicUSD/Tether (USTCUSDT) opened at 0.01131 at 12:00 ET–1 and closed at 0.0115 at 12:00 ET, with a high of 0.01159 and a low of 0.01131. Total volume reached 58.5 million USD, while turnover amounted to $6.9 million. Price moved within a defined range but failed to break through key resistance levels.

The structure of the price action suggests a consolidation phase after an early morning rally that brought prices close to the 0.01158 level. A bullish engulfing pattern appeared at 18:15 ET, confirming a short-term reversal from bearish to bullish sentiment. However, this pattern failed to hold as price retraced back into the range. A doji at 00:30 ET signaled indecision, reinforcing the possibility of further consolidation. Key support and resistance levels appear to be between 0.0114 and 0.01158, forming a tight trading range that may persist into the next 24 hours.

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart showed a slight upward slope in the late afternoon, supporting the idea of a short-term bullish bias, though neither confirmed a strong breakout. RSI hovered around 50 all day, indicating neutral momentum, while MACD displayed a weak bullish crossover in the evening. Bollinger Bands narrowed during overnight hours, suggesting potential for a breakout, but volume failed to confirm the breakout attempt around 19:45 ET. Price remained near the upper band during active trading hours, showing elevated volatility.

Volume increased significantly during the late afternoon, aligning with a rally near 19:45 ET. However, the price failed to follow through, creating a divergence between volume and price action. Turnover spiked coinciding with the 0.01158 high but did not confirm a lasting breakout, raising caution about further upside. Fibonacci retracements from the overnight low to the intraday high highlighted 0.01152 (61.8%) as a critical level to watch—price failed to maintain above this level, suggesting bearish pressure. The 0.01158 high may still act as a psychological barrier in the near term.

A backtest hypothesis could be built around a breakout strategy targeting the 0.01158–0.01145 range, using a 15-minute chart as a trigger. A long entry would be placed slightly above 0.01158 with a stop loss just below 0.01145. A close above 0.01158 would confirm bullish momentum, potentially leading to a target of 0.01162 based on Fibonacci extensions. However, given the bearish divergence seen in the volume and price action, a bearish counter-trend trade could be triggered from the 0.01145 retracement level, with a target at 0.01131 and a stop above 0.01152. This hypothesis aligns with the observed 15-minute bullish and bearish patterns, including the failed breakout and the doji indicating indecision.