USTC/USDT Market Overview: Volatility and Mixed Signals on 2025-11-09

Summary• TerraClassicUSD/Tether opened at $0.00735 and closed at $0.00728 on 2025-11-09.• Daily high of $0.00755 and low of $0.00714 observed, showing significant intraday volatility.• Total 24-hour volume was 58,583,586.0 and total turnover was $421,798.43.

TerraClassicUSD/Tether (USTCUSDT) experienced a volatile session on 2025-11-09, opening at $0.00735 and closing at $0.00728 after reaching an intraday high of $0.00755 and a low of $0.00714. The pair traded with heavy volume, totaling 58,583,586.0 and achieving $421,798.43 in notional turnover. This suggests active interest in the pair, though direction remains uncertain.

Structure and candlestick formations showed multiple bearish and bullish signals. A strong bearish engulfing pattern appeared near the $0.00750 resistance level in the early evening (ET), while a bullish engulfing pattern occurred later near $0.00726. These conflicting signals suggest indecision between buyers and sellers. A notable bearish doji formed at $0.00735, signaling potential exhaustion in bullish momentum. Key support appears near $0.00725–$0.00726, with resistance around $0.00746–$0.00750.

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart showed a narrowing spread in the afternoon, indicating a potential consolidation phase. The 50-period MA remained above the 20-period MA, suggesting moderate bearish bias over the short term. On a broader scale, the 50-period daily MA crossed below the 200-period MA, forming a bearish death cross and reinforcing bearish sentiment for longer-term traders.

Momentum indicators showed mixed signals. The MACD crossed below its signal line in the early morning, forming a bearish crossover, and continued to trend downward. RSI readings hovered around the 50–60 range most of the day, indicating balanced momentum without clear overbought or oversold levels. A brief dip to 42 in the early morning and a rise to 58 in the late afternoon hinted at potential short-term volatility and possible reversal setups.

Bollinger Bands showed a moderate widening during the afternoon, indicating rising volatility. Price spent most of the session within the bands, with a few excursions near the upper and lower boundaries. Notably, the price touched the upper band at $0.00755 before retracting, suggesting strong resistance at that level. The lower band at $0.00714 acted as a temporary floor, but the close near $0.00728 suggests sellers regained control.

Volume and turnover were closely aligned, with large spikes coinciding with price swings, particularly between 19:00–21:00 ET when the price moved between $0.00735 and $0.00753. However, a divergence in volume and price was observed in the early morning session, where price dropped from $0.00755 to $0.00739 but volume remained relatively low, suggesting weak follow-through from sellers.

Fibonacci retracement levels on the 15-minute chart highlighted key support and resistance levels. The 38.2% retracement at $0.00737 and the 61.8% at $0.00729 were tested multiple times. On the daily timeframe, the $0.00735–$0.00755 swing produced a 61.8% retracement at $0.00730, which appeared to hold as a support level in the afternoon.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy outlined aims to identify bearish engulfing candlestick patterns near key resistance levels on the 15-minute chart. These patterns often signal short-term exhaustion in bullish momentum and can be used as potential short entry points. The strategy would pair these signals with RSI divergence and Bollinger Band width to confirm volatility and exhaustion in price. A short entry would be triggered when the bearish engulfing candle forms at or near a prior resistance level confirmed by the MACD and RSI. Stop-loss levels would be placed above the high of the bearish engulfing candle, while take-profit levels would be set at the next Fibonacci retracement or moving average support. The performance of this strategy will be tested from January 1, 2022, to November 9, 2025, with metrics including returns, drawdowns, and hit rate analyzed for consistency and adaptability across market conditions.