USDTPLN +13.79% in 7 Days Amid Market Volatility

On SEP 6 2025, USDTPLN rose by 2.75% within 24 hours to reach $3.634, while recording a 13.79% gain over the past seven days. This recent rally comes after a sharp 30.2% decline over the previous month and an extraordinary 1223.11% drop over the last year. The movement highlights the extreme volatility that continues to characterize the asset’s price behavior.

The weekly rebound suggests a possible short-term reversal in the bearish momentum that had dominated USDTPLN over the last few weeks. Analysts project that the recent uptick may reflect increased stability in the underlying asset’s pegging mechanisms and improved liquidity across key exchanges. Despite the sharp monthly drop, the 7-day gain has drawn attention from market participants monitoring the pair’s potential for a near-term bounce.

Technical indicators point to mixed signals. The 50-period and 200-period moving averages remain in a bearish crossover, reinforcing the long-term downtrend. However, the relative strength index (RSI) is showing signs of recovery, moving into overbought territory for the first time in several weeks. This divergence between trend-based and momentum-based indicators may indicate a transitional phase in the market's psychology.

Backtest Hypothesis

To better understand the potential of USDTPLN’s recent performance, a backtesting strategy has been applied to historical price data. The approach focuses on a dual-moving average crossover system, using the 20-period and 50-period moving averages as the primary signal triggers. A long position is initiated when the 20-period MA crosses above the 50-period MA, and an exit is signaled when the opposite occurs.

The backtesting strategy is designed to capture short-to-mid-term momentum while filtering out noise associated with daily fluctuations. Over the last 30 days, the strategy would have entered one long position following a bearish period, aligning with the recent 7-day gain. The system’s performance, measured by profit and loss, would require further calibration, but the recent price action provides a favorable environment for momentum-based traders to re-enter the asset with a defined risk profile.