USDTIDR Breaks Key Support Amid Surging Bear Volume

Summary
• Price traded in a tight range early before a sharp midday decline.
• Key support levels held briefly but failed under increased bearish pressure.
• Turnover surged during the downward leg, confirming bear momentum.
• RSI entered oversold territory suggesting potential near-term reversal.
• Bollinger Bands widened significantly as volatility spiked.

Market Overview

Tether/Rupiah (USDTIDR) opened at 16916.0 on February 7 at 12:00 ET and reached a high of 16925.0 by early afternoon before dropping to a low of 16894.0 on February 8. The pair closed at 16922.0 at 12:00 ET on February 8. Total volume for the 24-hour period was approximately 1,648,810.09 units, with a notional turnover of about 28.27 billion Rupiah.

Structure & Formations

The price exhibited a tight consolidation between 16917.0 and 16919.0 early in the session before a sharp break lower. This downward move was supported by a bearish engulfing pattern forming as the price dropped from 16919.0 to 16901.0. A key support level at 16900.0 was briefly tested multiple times, but bearish pressure persisted, pushing the price further down. The price later recovered slightly in the final hours, forming a small bullish reversal pattern near the end of the day.

Trend and Moving Averages

Short-term moving averages (20-period and 50-period on the 5-min chart) sloped downward during the early bearish phase, confirming the strength of the sell-off. Later in the session, as the price recovered slightly, the 20-period MA showed a flattening trend, suggesting reduced bear momentum. The 200-period daily MA is neutral to slightly bearish, aligning with the current price behavior.

Momentum Indicators

The RSI reached oversold levels around 16895.0–16900.0, hinting at potential short-term rebounds. MACD lines showed bearish divergence in the morning but began to flatten as the price recovered slightly later in the day. The histogram remained bearish until late in the session, showing a gradual decline in downward momentum.

Bollinger Bands and Volatility

Volatility expanded significantly during the midday decline, with the Bollinger Bands widening to accommodate the sharp drop. Price traded near the lower band for an extended period, particularly between 16894.0 and 16900.0, indicating heightened bearish pressure and oversold conditions.

Volume and Turnover

Volume spiked during the midday breakdown, with large volume spikes observed around the 16900.0 and 16895.0 levels. Notional turnover mirrored this trend, showing a sharp increase during the bearish phase and a more subdued recovery in the final hours. The divergence between volume and price during the late rebound suggests that the move may be short-lived unless further bullish momentum is confirmed.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci retracement levels of the morning high (16919.0) to the midday low (16894.0) showed key levels at 38.2% (16908.75) and 61.8% (16901.25). The price tested the 61.8% level multiple times, with mixed results. A close above the 38.2% level could signal a potential short-term recovery.

The market appears to be in a period of uncertainty, with bearish momentum dominating early in the session before showing signs of stabilization. A potential short-term reversal may occur as RSI enters oversold territory, but the near-term trend remains bearish unless a sustained rebound above key Fibonacci and moving average levels is confirmed. Investors should remain cautious for a possible continuation of the downward trend, with volatility likely to persist in the next 24 hours.