USDE -13.99% in 1 Month Amidst Stable Peg Erosion and Broader Market Deterioration

On SEP 22 2025, USDE dropped by 1% within 24 hours to reach $0.999, USDE dropped by 12.99% within 7 days, dropped by 13.99% within 1 month, and dropped by 13.99% within 1 year.

The asset, designed to maintain a 1:1 peg to the US dollar, has seen a gradual but consistent decline in value over the past month. While USDE remains within one basis point of the dollar, the cumulative loss of 13.99% over a 30-day period has raised questions about the stability of its underlying mechanisms and collateral diversification. This shift is part of a broader trend of stablecoins experiencing pressure amid heightened market volatility and a general flight to liquidity.

Technical indicators suggest a bearish consolidation pattern, with USDE's 20-day and 50-day exponential moving averages crossing below the 100-day average. This configuration typically signals weakening momentum and potential for further downside. Analysts project that the price could test $0.997 in the near term, particularly if broader stablecoin sentiment continues to deteriorate.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the current price behavior and historical volatility patterns, a backtesting strategy has been proposed to evaluate potential outcomes using technical indicators. The strategy focuses on using moving average crossovers and RSI divergence to time entries and exits in a long-short framework. The hypothesis is that the recent weakening in USDE could present a defined-risk long position, particularly if a rebound occurs following a short-term correction. The strategy would also include a stop-loss mechanism to limit downside risk, assuming market conditions remain unchanged.