USDCPLN Breaks Out After Midnight Surge, Volume Confirms Strength

Summary
• Price action shows a bullish breakout from 3.600 with a 5.9% increase over the last 24 hours.
• RSI and MACD suggest growing momentum with no signs of overbought conditions.
• Bollinger Bands indicate a recent volatility expansion, with price near the upper band.
• Volume and turnover surged after 00:00 ET, confirming strength in the upward trend.
• A potential Fibonacci 61.8% retracement level at 3.597 may offer near-term support.

Market Overview

At 12:00 ET on February 6, USDC/Zloty (USDCPLN) opened at 3.59, reaching a high of 3.61 and a low of 3.582, closing at 3.605 at 12:00 ET the following day. Total volume was 1,434,752.0 units, with a notional turnover of 5,119,577.6 PLN across the 24-hour period.

Structure & Formations

Price action shows a strong consolidation phase between 3.59 and 3.601, followed by a decisive upward breakout after 00:00 ET. A bullish engulfing pattern formed around 00:30–01:00 ET, suggesting a shift in momentum. A key support level appears to be forming near 3.597, with resistance at 3.604–3.605 showing initial pressure.

Moving Averages

On the 5-minute chart, price closed above both the 20-EMA and 50-EMA, with a positive slope in both. On the daily chart, the 50- and 200-day moving averages appear to be converging, suggesting the potential for a more sustained bullish trend if the rally continues.

MACD & RSI

MACD turned positive after 00:00 ET and has remained above zero, confirming bullish momentum. The RSI climbed from 54 to 61 during the session, indicating rising strength but not yet signaling overbought conditions. A reading above 60 suggests continued buying pressure may persist.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded sharply after the midnight breakout, pushing price to the upper band. The 20-period Bollinger Bands widened from 0.005 to 0.009 during the session, reflecting increasing market participation and a potential continuation of the move.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked significantly after 00:00 ET, with the largest 5-minute bar at 69,528 units. Notional turnover also surged during the same period, showing a strong correlation with price movement. No divergence between volume and price was observed, suggesting the upward trend is well-supported.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the 5-minute swing from 3.582 to 3.611, the 38.2% (3.600) and 61.8% (3.597) levels appear to be key levels to watch. Price found initial resistance at 3.604, which aligns with the 38.2% retracement and may serve as a pivot in the near term.

Moving forward, the market may test the 3.605–3.610 range, with a possible pullback toward 3.597 offering a buying opportunity. A break above 3.610 could accelerate the bullish trend, but investors should remain cautious of potential corrections if volume fails to sustain above 60,000 units on key 5-minute bars.