USDC/Tether Market Overview

Summary
• Price remained within a tight 1.0002–1.0006 range, reflecting stable peg and low volatility.
• Volume surged during late ET hours, peaking at 178 million USD equivalent.
• MACD and RSI showed no strong overbought or oversold signals, suggesting a balanced short-term sentiment.

The USDC/Tether (USDCUSDT) pair opened at 1.0003 on 2025-11-06 at 12:00 ET and closed at 1.0003 on 2025-11-07 at 12:00 ET. The 24-hour range was between a low of 1.0002 and a high of 1.0006. Total volume reached 1,247,915,002 USD equivalent, and with average price at 1.0003, notional turnover approximated to 1,248,098,585 USD.

Structure & Formations

The price remained tightly pegged to 1.0003–1.0004 for the majority of the period, with occasional dips to 1.0002 and minor surges to 1.0005–1.0006. Notable patterns included a bullish engulfing formation around 05:00 ET as price moved from 1.0003 to 1.0004, followed by a series of doji candles between 13:00 and 14:00 ET indicating indecision.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages were nearly overlapping around 1.0003, confirming the range-bound nature of the pair. While no long-term directional signal was present, the price frequently tested the 20-period SMA without a clear breakout.

MACD & RSI

MACD showed a flat histogram, with the line hovering near zero and no clear trend. RSI oscillated within the 50–55 range for most of the period, indicating moderate momentum without overbought or oversold conditions. A brief spike to 58 occurred during the 12:45–13:00 ET window, but no actionable divergence was observed.

Bollinger Bands

Price remained within the Bollinger Bands for the full 24 hours, with volatility remaining low and the bands compressed. There were a few instances where the price touched the lower band (e.g., at 21:30 ET), but these were quickly reversed without any breakout confirmation.

Volume & Turnover

Volume was relatively steady during the early hours but surged between 04:00–08:00 ET, peaking at a 15-minute volume of 67 million USD equivalent. The late surge coincided with a small price rally to 1.0005. Notional turnover mirrored the volume pattern, with a strong increase in liquidity observed during the 05:00–08:00 ET window.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the 1.0002–1.0006 range, the 50% level at 1.0004 became a key resistance and support zone. The price tested the 38.2% and 61.8% levels multiple times but failed to break either, reinforcing the range-bound narrative.

Backtest Hypothesis

A hypothetical backtest strategy using RSI to detect oversold conditions in a stable-peg asset like USDC/Tether would likely struggle to generate buy signals, given the asset's minimal price deviation. For example, if we attempted to pull the RSI for a comparable but mislabeled ticker like “HOLD.P,” a data error would typically occur. To proceed, one could: confirm the correct ticker, use an alternate data source, or substitute a similar, more liquid asset for demonstration. The core RSI-based strategy remains valid but requires accurate and liquid price data for meaningful results.