Four/USDC Market Overview

• Price declined from 1.0716 to 0.9864, forming bearish divergences in momentum and volume.
• Volatility spiked during the spike to 1.3588, then compressed toward the end of the period.
• RSI and MACD showed bearish momentum shifts, with RSI nearing oversold levels.
• Volume surged during the mid-day selloff but declined sharply in the final hours.
• Key support levels identified around 0.9864 and 0.9748, with resistance near 1.0106 and 1.03.

The FORMUSDC pair opened at 1.0203 on 2025-09-26 00:00 ET and closed at 0.9864 by 12:00 ET. The 24-hour range was 1.3588 (high) to 0.9748 (low), with total volume of 216,800.09 and total turnover of 208,993.92. The market displayed pronounced bearish pressure in the mid-session and a consolidation phase toward the close.

Structure & Formations

Price formed a bearish engulfing pattern during the 19:00 ET candle as it opened at 1.0716 and closed at 1.0821, followed by a sharp reversal to 1.0613 and continued downward. A long bearish shadow was evident between 1.0821 and 1.066, suggesting indecision and potential exhaustion in the short-term bullish sentiment. A doji-like candle emerged at 05:45 ET (0.9991–0.9991), indicating a critical turning point where sellers regained control after a brief consolidation.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period MA (1.0215) crossed below the 50-period MA (1.0259), forming a death cross that reinforced bearish sentiment. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA (1.032) is above the 200-period MA (1.0189), indicating a longer-term bearish trend. The 100-period MA (1.0202) provides some intermediate resistance but appears to be losing relevance as price continues to fall.

MACD & RSI

The 12-period MACD line moved below the signal line during the mid-day selloff, with a bearish divergence forming between the indicator and price. RSI dipped to 28.5 near the end of the period, signaling oversold conditions. However, this may not trigger a bullish reversal due to the weak volume and lack of follow-through buying. Momentum appears to be decaying, and any short-term rallies should be viewed with skepticism.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly during the spike to 1.3588, with the upper band reaching 1.3756 and the lower band at 1.3378. As price retreated, volatility contracted into a narrower range between 1.0156 and 1.0316 by the final hours. Price closed near the lower Bollinger Band (0.9864), indicating a potential short-term oversold condition, though further consolidation or a breakdown remains likely.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged to a high of 18,283.8 during the 19:00 ET candle as price peaked at 1.3588, but sharply declined afterward, signaling a lack of conviction in the upward move. Notional turnover dropped from 19,546.4 to 554.4 in the final 15-minute candle, indicating a quiet close with no clear direction. The divergence between price and volume suggests weakening momentum and a possible continuation of the bearish trend.

Fibonacci Retracements

Key Fibonacci levels were identified from the 1.3588 high to the 0.9748 low, with 61.8% (1.070) and 38.2% (1.150) levels acting as psychological resistance and support. On the 15-minute chart, the 61.8% retracement level (1.039) coincided with a sharp pullback to 1.0145, suggesting exhaustion at that level. The 38.2% retracement (1.150) remains untested but is likely to serve as a key barrier if a reversal attempt occurs.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy could involve using a combination of the 20-period and 50-period MAs as dynamic support and resistance levels, with entry triggered by a bearish crossover and confirmation via RSI falling below 30. Stop-loss placement could be set at the nearest Fibonacci resistance level, while take-profit targets could be aligned with the 61.8% and 38.2% retracement levels. This hypothesis would test whether a mean-reverting approach could capitalize on the current bearish momentum while managing risk through defined levels. Given the recent price action and low volume, this strategy might yield favorable risk-reward ratios if applied with strict discipline.