Four/USDC Market Overview for 2025-11-13

Summary
• Price fell from 0.4535 to 0.4473, with a key break below 0.45.
• Volume surged after 20:00 ET, indicating increased selling pressure.
• RSI moved into oversold territory, suggesting potential bounce.
• Bollinger Bands show a recent contraction, hinting at rising volatility.
• Strong bearish divergence in closing patterns suggests bearish continuation.

The Four/USDC pair (FORMUSDC) opened at 0.4535 on 2025-11-12 at 12:00 ET and closed at 0.4473 on 2025-11-13 at 12:00 ET, with a high of 0.4679 and low of 0.4210 over the 24-hour period. The price action showed bearish momentum, especially in the late evening to overnight session. Total traded volume was 319,996.5, while total turnover amounted to approximately $144,432.09 (assuming $1 = 1 USDC).

The structure of the candlesticks over the past 24 hours revealed strong bearish control. A notable bearish engulfing pattern occurred on the 15-minute chart during the 00:15–00:45 ET window, followed by a sharp decline toward the session’s low. The price has since tested key support levels, including the 0.44 and 0.435 psychological thresholds. Resistance appears to be forming between 0.45 and 0.46 as buyers have failed to push price above these levels in multiple attempts.

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart have converged downward, reinforcing the bearish bias. On the daily chart, the 50, 100, and 200-period moving averages are trending lower, indicating a longer-term bearish bias. The RSI has moved into oversold territory, suggesting that the recent sell-off may pause or reverse in the short term, but a sustained bounce requires clear confirmation above 0.45.

The MACD is in negative territory, with a bearish crossover forming as the signal line crosses above the histogram, reinforcing downward momentum. Bollinger Bands show a recent contraction in volatility before the 00:15 ET window, followed by a sharp expansion as the price broke below the lower band, signaling heightened bearish activity. The recent price action sits near the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the previous bullish swing, which may act as a key support zone for the next 24 hours.

Volume spiked during the 00:15–02:45 ET window, with over 75,000 units traded between 00:15 and 00:45 ET. This high volume coincided with the bearish breakout and supports the validity of the move lower. Notional turnover also increased in this period, confirming bearish conviction. However, volume has since declined, which could suggest exhaustion or consolidation ahead of a potential reversal or continuation move. A close above 0.45 would revalidate bullish potential, while a break below 0.435 could intensify the downward move.

Looking ahead, the market may face a key test at 0.435, with the possibility of further bearish follow-through if this level fails. However, with RSI in oversold territory and a potential bounce near the 61.8% Fibonacci level, investors should remain cautious of short-term volatility and potential reversal attempts. Traders should closely monitor volume and momentum indicators for signs of exhaustion or renewed bearish pressure.

A viable backtest hypothesis could be built around detecting bearish engulfing patterns on the 15-minute chart. Given the strong bearish move seen during the 00:15–00:45 ET window, a strategy could enter short positions after the pattern is confirmed and exit 3 days later. Stop-loss could be placed above the 0.46 level, while take-profit targets could be placed near the 0.4210 support level. A broader market benchmark such as SPY or a crypto-specific index would be necessary to contextualize performance. Further refinements would require clarifying the universe of tickers and execution assumptions as outlined.