Four/USDC Market Overview for 2025-11-12

Summary
• Four/USDC opened at 0.4596 and closed at 0.4477, with a 24-hour high of 0.4786 and a low of 0.4346.
• Price action showed a volatile bearish trend with several key retracement levels and consolidation phases.
• Volume spiked during sharp declines, suggesting increased bearish participation and potential continuation.

The 24-hour period for the pair FORMUSDC saw a 12-hour opening price of 0.4596, a high of 0.4786, a low of 0.4346, and a close of 0.4477 at 12:00 ET. Total volume amounted to 752,490.1, and notional turnover reached $334,543.80. Price behavior reflected heightened volatility with sharp corrections and limited bullish follow-through. The overall market sentiment remained bearish, especially after the 0.4786 high failed to attract sufficient buying pressure.

Structure & Formations

The price formed a distinct bearish reversal pattern following the 0.4786 high, with a strong rejection observed around 0.4692–0.4704. A key support level appears to be forming at 0.4477–0.4497, while resistance is now at 0.4601–0.4618. A notable doji formed at 0.4493, indicating indecision. A breakdown below 0.4408 may trigger further downward momentum.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages have both turned downward, aligning with the bearish bias. The 50-period MA is at 0.4579, and the 20-period MA is at 0.4594—both below the current close. On the daily chart, the 50, 100, and 200-period MAs are likely converging, with the 50-period MA acting as a potential short-term support.

MACD & RSI

The RSI has dipped below 30 multiple times throughout the day, indicating recurring oversold conditions, but failed to show a strong reversal. The MACD line has been negative for much of the session, with the histogram contracting slightly in the last few hours—suggesting momentum may be slowing. This could hint at a short-term bounce, but only if buyers emerge decisively above 0.4503.

Backtest Hypothesis
A backtest strategy was attempted using the RSI(14) indicator for an unrelated ticker. While the data for "HOLD.P" could not be retrieved, the current RSI behavior on FORMUSDC shows frequent overbought and oversold conditions, which could be suitable for similar RSI-based strategies. If a 5-day hold rule is applied on each RSI < 30 signal, the pair may provide multiple entry opportunities within a volatile 24-hour window. However, confirmation is needed for the ticker’s accurate symbol and historical data to proceed with the backtest.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility has increased significantly, with Bollinger Bands expanding beyond 0.010 range. The current close of 0.4477 is positioned just above the lower band, indicating a strong bearish bias. A contraction in the bands is not yet evident, suggesting that the current price may remain within or below the band for the next 24 hours unless buyers step in to push it upward.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during sharp declines, especially after 04:00 ET, with the 0.4408 low coinciding with a volume of 15,663.3. This suggests aggressive selling pressure at key levels. However, notional turnover has been relatively stable despite the price drop, indicating that liquidity remains intact. No clear divergence between price and volume is observed, which supports the validity of the bearish trend.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to the 0.4346 to 0.4786 swing, the 61.8% retracement level is at 0.4563, and the 38.2% level is at 0.4618. The current price is approaching the 61.8% level from below, which may act as a key psychological support if buyers intervene. A failure to hold above this level could see the pair test the 0.4408–0.4464 range once again.

The market appears to be in a short-term bearish phase, with price consolidating near key support levels. If a breakout below 0.4408 occurs, the pair may extend its downward move toward 0.4346. Conversely, a bounce above 0.4503 could signal a temporary pause in the bearish momentum. Investors should closely monitor volume patterns and the MACD histogram for signs of a potential reversal or continuation.