Four/USDC Market Overview on 2025-11-04

Summary
• Four/USDC traded in a 24-hour range of $0.4136–$0.4474, closing near support at $0.4307.
• Volatility expanded during early ET with a sharp drop to $0.4150, but reversed with renewed buying interest.
• On-balance volume shows strong participation during the late-night recovery phase.

Four/USDC (FORMUSDC) opened at $0.4465 on 2025-11-04 at 12:00 ET − 1 and closed at $0.4307 by 12:00 ET. The pair reached a high of $0.4474 and a low of $0.4136 during the session, reflecting heightened volatility. Total traded volume stood at approximately 338,920 units with a notional turnover of ~$141,800.

Structure & Formations

The 24-hour chart showed a bearish breakdown early in the session, with a sharp decline from $0.4465 to a low of $0.4150. However, the price rebounded in the late-night hours, forming a bullish reversal pattern around $0.4257–$0.4307. Key resistance appears at $0.4343–$0.4474, while strong support is found at $0.4136–$0.4257. A bearish engulfing pattern formed at the session’s open, but was later negated by a bullish continuation.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages showed a bearish crossover early in the session, reinforcing the initial downward trend. However, as buying pressure increased, the 20-period MA began to retrace upward, closing above the 50-period MA by session’s end. On daily charts, the 50-period MA sits just below the 200-period MA, indicating a neutral to slightly bearish bias in the medium term.

MACD & RSI

The MACD showed a strong bearish divergence at the start of the session but reversed with a bullish crossover after 1:00 AM ET. RSI hit oversold territory at $0.4150, signaling potential buying interest. It has since recovered to ~45, suggesting balanced momentum but with no clear overbought condition.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly during the early hours, pushing price to the lower Bollinger band. This was followed by a sharp contraction as price moved toward the middle band by the session’s close. The price remains within the bands, suggesting no immediate breakaway from the current range, though continued testing of support near $0.4136 may trigger further volatility.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the early decline, reaching a peak of ~35,540 units at $0.4150, but remained elevated during the recovery phase. Notional turnover also rose as the price rebounded, aligning with the volume flow. A notable divergence occurred as price fell but volume remained subdued in the 2–4 AM ET window, suggesting weak bearish conviction.

Fibonacci Retracements

On the 15-minute chart, the price found support at the 61.8% Fibonacci level during the late-night rebound, reinforcing a potential reversal. On daily charts, the 38.2% retracement level at $0.4325 appears to be a key near-term resistance. Traders should watch for a test of the 50% level at $0.4293 as a potential pivot.

Backtest Hypothesis

The Bearish-Engulfing pattern identified at the start of the session provides an example of how such setups may trigger short-term bearish trades. A backtest strategy could test entries on confirmed bearish engulfing patterns with stop-loss levels above the high of the pattern and take-profit at 1.618–2.618 Fibonacci levels of the preceding bullish move. Given the volatile nature of Four/USDC, such a strategy would benefit from volume confirmation and RSI divergence to filter false signals. Testing this approach on historical data from 2022 would provide insight into its robustness under different market conditions.

The next 24 hours may see further consolidation within the $0.4136–$0.4343 range, with a potential test of key Fibonacci levels. However, traders should remain cautious as volume divergence suggests fragile momentum. A break below $0.4136 or above $0.4343 could lead to extended volatility, depending on broader market sentiment and potential news.