USDA Report Set to Impact Grain Futures Markets on August 12: Big Yields Expected for US Corn and Soybean Crops.

USDA's monthly supply and demand report on August 12 may see muted market action due to expected huge and record yields for US corn and soybean crops. Analysts predict US corn production at 15.991 billion bushels and soybean production at 4.371 billion bushels. Despite bearish data, a "sell the rumor, buy the fact" scenario may play out. US Midwest weather remains non-threatening for corn and soybean crops. Export demand for US corn is picking up steam, with new-crop sales totaling 3.163 million MT.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) is set to release its monthly supply and demand report on August 12, which may see muted market action despite the expected record yields for U.S. corn and soybean crops. Analysts predict U.S. corn production at 15.991 billion bushels and soybean production at 4.371 billion bushels [1].

The report is anticipated to show strong export demand for U.S. corn, with new-crop sales totaling 3.163 million metric tons (MT). However, the "sell the rumor, buy the fact" scenario may play out, as farmers have already been clearing their bins of old crop corn ahead of the new crop harvest [2].

Despite the bearish data, the US Midwest weather remains non-threatening for corn and soybean crops. The corn basis fell 2 cents at a processor in Decatur, Illinois and a river terminal in Davenport, Iowa, while the soybean basis dropped 5 cents at a processor in Lafayette, Indiana and another in Council Bluffs, Iowa [2].

The August WASDE report will be the first crop report of the year using National Agricultural Statistics Service data to estimate yield for the 2025/2026 corn and soybean crops. The data is primarily driven by farmer surveys, includes satellite imagery data, and relies less on historical models [1].

The report is expected to show minimal impact on old-crop ending stocks due to the strong export demand and the higher new-crop yield estimates. The new-crop ending stocks for corn and soybeans are likely to be adjusted higher by 2-4 bushels per acre (bpa) and ½–1 bpa, respectively, to reflect the favorable growing conditions this summer and above-average crop ratings [1].

Historically, the August WASDE report has shown above-average market volatility for corn, soybeans, and wheat, with a 59% likelihood of triggering a positive reaction [1]. However, with the expected record yields and strong export demand, market volatility may be muted.

References:
[1] https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/what-farmers-need-to-know-before-the-august-wasde-report/
[2] https://www.tradingview.com/news/reuters.com,2025:newsml_L1N3TZ10J:0-corn-soybean-bids-flat-to-down-at-processors-river-terminals/