USD1USDT Breaks Below 1.0003 with Bearish Engulfing at Key Resistance

Summary
• Price opened at 1.0001 and formed a bearish reversal after a 0.04% rise, closing at 0.9998.
• Strong volume spikes at key price levels suggest accumulation or distribution.
• RSI entered oversold territory, hinting at potential short-term bounce.
• Bollinger Bands narrowed pre-break in volatility, signaling a potential breakout.
• A bearish engulfing pattern emerged near resistance at 1.0004, increasing near-term downward bias.

World Liberty Financial USD/Tether (USD1USDT) opened at 1.0001 on 2026-02-11 at 12:00 ET and reached a high of 1.0004 before closing at 0.9998 on 2026-02-12 at 12:00 ET. The 24-hour low was 0.9997. Total volume was 102,828,627.0, and notional turnover was approximately 102,794,410.50.

Structure & Formations

The price moved within a tight range for most of the session, punctuated by several bearish engulfing patterns, most notably at 1.0004. A bearish reversal is suggested by the rejection at this level, with a doji appearing near the session high. The 0.9998 level has acted as a magnet for multiple closes and is likely to serve as short-term support.

Moving Averages

On the 5-minute chart, the 20- and 50-period SMAs remained closely aligned near 1.0002, reflecting minimal directional bias. Daily moving averages (50, 100, 200) are expected to be in close proximity to the 1.0001–1.0003 range, reinforcing a neutral-to-bullish mid-term bias.

Momentum Indicators

The RSI entered oversold territory in the final hours, suggesting a possible short-term bounce. The MACD line crossed below the signal line in the early morning, indicating a bearish momentum shift. However, divergence between weakening price and slightly improving RSI could hint at near-term stabilization.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands tightened during the overnight hours, signaling a contraction in volatility. The price broke out of this consolidation with a bearish move after 02:00 ET. Price has remained near the lower band in the last four hours, suggesting increased bearish momentum.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the consolidation phase, particularly around 01:00 ET–02:00 ET, as price broke below 1.0003. Notional turnover aligned with volume patterns, with no clear divergence. The final 30 minutes saw a volume decline, suggesting reduced conviction in the bearish move.

Fibonacci Retracements

The 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level sits near 0.9998, which the price has tested three times in the past 5 minutes. The 61.8% level is at 1.0002, aligning with the 5-minute SMA cluster and a prior resistance level. A break below 0.9997 would target the 50% retracement at 0.9999.

USD1USDT appears to be consolidating within a defined range, with a bearish bias likely to continue if the 0.9997 level holds. Investors may watch for a potential bounce from this key support level, but should remain cautious of a further breakdown if volume increases again.