US 10-year Treasury Note yield to rise to 4.03% in three months vs 4.25% in July poll - Poll.

US 10-year Treasury Note yield to rise to 4.03% in three months vs 4.25% in July poll - Poll.

The US 10-year Treasury note yield, which serves as a benchmark for US borrowing costs, is expected to rise to 4.03% in the next three months, according to a recent poll [1]. This prediction contrasts with the July forecast of 4.25%, indicating a potential easing of market expectations for further interest rate hikes.

As of May 14, 2024, the US 10-year Treasury note yield stood at 4.48% [2]. This figure reflects a decrease from the beginning of the week, when it hovered below 4.5% [2]. The decline in yields can be attributed to several factors, including investors' anticipation of key economic data releases and statements from Federal Reserve officials.

One of the most closely watched data points is the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which measures the change in the prices of a basket of goods and services. Another critical indicator is the Producer Price Index (PPI), which gauges the cost of goods at the producer level [2]. Additionally, retail sales and industrial production numbers are expected to provide insights into the overall health of the economy [2].

Fed officials have been vocal about their intentions to keep interest rates elevated, citing concerns about inflation. For instance, several policymakers have suggested that rates will remain high for some time [2]. However, market participants are keenly aware of the potential for a policy pivot, particularly if economic data starts to indicate a slowdown in inflation.

According to Trading Economics, the US 10-Year Treasury Bond Yield is expected to trade at 4.63% by the end of this quarter and 4.43% in 12 months' time [2]. These forecasts highlight the ongoing uncertainty surrounding the direction of interest rates, as market conditions and economic data continue to evolve.

In summary, the US 10-year Treasury note yield is forecast to rise to 4.03% in the next three months, according to a recent poll. This prediction reflects a potential easing of market expectations for further interest rate hikes and is influenced by a range of economic indicators and Fed statements. As always, investors should closely monitor these developments and consider their investment strategies accordingly.

References:
[1] MacroMicro. (2024). S&P 500-10Y Yield. Retrieved May 14, 2024, from https://en.macromicro.me/charts/3919/sp500-10y-yield
[2] Trading Economics. (2024). US 10-Year Treasury Bond Yield. Retrieved May 14, 2024, from https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/government-bond-yield