Upstart Stock Plummets 3.46% as Trading Volume Drops 42% to 416th in Activity Amid Mixed Earnings

Market Snapshot

On December 30, 2025, , . , , which ranked it 416th in market activity. This sharp drop in volume and price followed mixed earnings results earlier in the quarter, . , the stock reacted negatively in after-hours trading, .

Key Drivers

Upstart’s Q3 2025 earnings report highlighted a stark contrast between strong profitability and revenue challenges. , , contributing to the post-earnings stock decline. , underscoring operational efficiency. However, , particularly in its core auto retail business, .

Management’s forward-looking guidance provided a cautiously optimistic outlook. , . CEO Dave Girouard emphasized Upstart’s leadership in AI-driven lending, while CFO Sanjay Datta noted the AI model’s conservative was a strategic response to macroeconomic signals. These statements signaled confidence in the company’s long-term positioning but also hinted at near-term caution in risk management, which may have tempered investor enthusiasm.

Institutional investor activity added nuance to the stock’s recent performance. Annex Advisory Services LLC increased its stake in Q3, , while other hedge funds adjusted their holdings in the second quarter. Despite this, , reflecting a mixed sentiment. Analyst price targets also varied, with Piper Sandler and Needham lowering their targets to $56–$65 and a consensus “Hold” rating, . The disparity between strong earnings and revenue challenges, coupled with analyst caution, suggests a market split between optimism over Upstart’s profitability and skepticism about its ability to sustain growth in a competitive landscape.

The stock’s technical indicators further complicate the outlook. , Upstart remains volatile. , aligning with the recent decline. Insider sales, , may signal internal caution, . These factors, combined with the earnings report, highlight a stock at a crossroads between short-term profitability and long-term growth uncertainties.

Ultimately, Upstart’s performance reflects the broader challenges of balancing AI-driven innovation with macroeconomic risks. While the company demonstrated resilience in profitability and strategic adaptability, the revenue miss and mixed analyst sentiment underscore the need for consistent execution. With 2026 guidance projecting continued growth, the market will likely remain watchful for signs of sustainable expansion in its diversified loan offerings and AI capabilities.