Upstart's 3.6% Rally on $750M Volume Ranks 156th as Earnings Approach

On July 30, 2025, Upstart (UPST) surged 3.60% to $83.33 with a $0.75 billion trading volume, marking an 84.18% increase from the previous day. The stock ranked 156th in daily trading activity, reflecting heightened investor engagement ahead of its August 5 earnings report.

Analysts anticipate mixed outcomes as Upstart prepares to release Q2 results. While quarterly earnings and revenue are projected to show year-over-year growth of 258.8% and 76.5%, bearish revisions to the Zacks Earnings ESP of -6.72% signal scaled-back expectations. Institutional activity further underscores caution, with Envestnet Asset Management reducing its stake by 16.1% and CEO Dave Girouard offloading 44.19% of his holdings, valued at over $3.1 million.

Optimism from EMJ Capital’s Eric Jackson, who built a long position in Upstart, has driven recent momentum. Jackson’s bullish thesis envisions a 15-fold return by 2028, citing the company’s AI-driven lending platform and potential tailwinds from Federal Reserve rate cuts. He highlighted Upstart’s improved loan approval rates and a small float of 94 million shares as catalysts for volatility.

Technical indicators suggest continued short-term strength, with the stock trading within a rising trendline and increased volume supporting its upward movement. A 166.71% return was generated from 2022 to the present by a strategy of buying the top 500 stocks by daily trading volume and holding for one day, significantly outperforming the benchmark return of 29.18%.