Upstart's 2.27% Drop and 288th Trading Rank Signal Earnings Uncertainty Amid Revised Forecasts and Institutional Sales

On July 29, 2025, Upstart (UPST) closed with a 2.27% decline, trading at $80.43 with a $0.4 billion trading volume. The stock ranked 288th in daily trading activity, reflecting mixed investor sentiment ahead of its August 5 earnings report. Analysts anticipate quarterly earnings of $0.27 per share and $225.3 million in revenue, both showing year-over-year growth of 258.8% and 76.5%, respectively. However, recent bearish revisions to the Zacks Earnings ESP of -6.72% suggest analysts have scaled back expectations, complicating predictions of an earnings beat despite a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).

Upstart’s earnings surprise history offers mixed signals. While it exceeded estimates by 57.89% in the prior quarter and outperformed four times in the last four quarters, the current bearish consensus and lack of a strong Zacks Rank diminish confidence in a positive surprise. Institutional activity further highlights uncertainty: Envestnet Asset Management reduced its stake by 16.1%, and CEO Dave Girouard sold 44.19% of his holdings, valued at over $3.1 million. These moves, coupled with a negative Earnings ESP, indicate cautious positioning ahead of the report.

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