UPS Extends Rally With 5.77% Gain As Technicals Signal Bullish Momentum

United Parcel (UPS) rose 3.17% in the most recent session, extending its gains for the third consecutive day with a cumulative 5.77% advance, closing at $102.46. This analysis examines key technical dynamics shaping its trajectory.
Candlestick Theory
Recent candlesticks reveal a bullish pattern emerging from consolidation. The June 10 candle (open $99.60, close $102.46) formed a long-bodied bullish marubozu with minimal wicks, reflecting strong buying conviction after three higher closes. This follows a hammer pattern on June 5 (low $96.58), confirming support near $96.50–$97. Resistance is evident near the April peak of $110.20, while $97–$98 now serves as robust support, tested successfully three times in May and June.
Moving Average Theory
The 50-day SMA (approximated at $110.20 given the dataset) caps upside potential, with the current price ($102.46) trading below it. However, the short-term 10-day SMA ($99.50) recently crossed above the 20-day SMA ($98.80), suggesting budding bullish momentum. The 100-day SMA ($118.50) remains a distant resistance, reinforcing the dominant downtrend from January highs, though flattening shorter averages hint at trend exhaustion.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
MACD (12,26,9) shows a bullish crossover on June 6, with the histogram turning positive for five consecutive sessions—indicating accelerating upside momentum. KDJ (14,3,3) exited oversold territory (sub-30) on May 27, with the %K line (75) maintaining above %D (65). While KDJ nears overbought thresholds, MACD’s sustained upward trajectory supports continuation potential before divergence emerges.
Bollinger Bands
The bands contracted sharply through May (width narrowing 25%), signaling suppressed volatility. The June 10 close pierced the upper band ($102.20), triggering a volatility expansion signal. Such breakouts often precede directional acceleration, though the close above the band suggests short-term overextension, increasing pullback probability toward the middle band ($100.20).
Volume-Price Relationship
Volume surged 64% on June 10 (6.63 million shares) versus the prior session, validating the breakout. The rally’s three-day volume average exceeded the 20-day mean by 32%, confirming buyer conviction. Conversely, the May downtrend saw diminishing volume, including the $91.92 low (April 8), which occurred on below-average turnover—indicating limited seller conviction at troughs.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The 14-day RSI (62) exited neutral territory this week after showing bullish divergence in late May (price made lower lows while RSI held above prior low). Current readings avoid overbought conditions (>70), preserving upside latitude. The RSI’s slope remains steep, though its proximity to 70 warrants monitoring for tactical exhaustion near $104 resistance.
Fibonacci Retracement
Drawing from the January high ($145) to April low ($91.92), key levels emerge: $112.46 (23.6%), $118.46 (38.2%), and $123.56 (50%). The recent rally stalled near the 23.6% retracement earlier this month. A decisive close above $104 may reactivate upside toward $112.46, where Fibonacci converges with the 50-day SMA—creating a high-probability resistance zone.
Confluence and Divergence Notes
Notable confluence exists at $112.50 (Fibonacci 23.6% + 50-day SMA) and $97 (multi-touch support + Bollinger lower band). Bullish agreement appears strongest in volume-supported price breakout, MACD crossover, and RSI divergence reversal. However, Bollinger’s upper band breach contrasts with RSI’s non-overbought stance, suggesting volatility expansion may precede consolidation. No material bearish divergences are evident in momentum oscillators.