UPS Defies Market Trends with 1.4% Gain Amid Sector Losses

United Parcel Service (UPS) closed at $85.20, a 1.4% increase from the previous day, despite the S&P 500 losing 0.13%. Analysts expect UPS to post earnings of $1.34 per share, a 23.86% YoY decline, and revenue of $20.86 billion, a 6.21% downward movement from the same quarter last year. The Zacks Rank system has a proven track record of outperformance, with #1 stocks generating an average annual return of +25%.

United Parcel Service (UPS) closed at $85.20 on September 12, 2025, marking a 1.4% increase from the previous day, despite the S&P 500 losing 0.13%. The stock's performance was buoyed by analyst optimism, as UPS is expected to post earnings of $1.34 per share, a 23.86% year-over-year (YoY) decline, and revenue of $20.86 billion, a 6.21% downward movement from the same quarter last year.

Analysts at Seeking Alpha have downgraded UPS from a "Buy" to a "Hold" rating, citing ongoing economic headwinds and concerns about dividend sustainability SA analyst upgrades/downgrades: AVGO, JPM, UPS, and QS^[1]. The downgrade follows UPS's decision to reduce Amazon package volume by over 50% by mid-2026, a move aimed at boosting profitability by shifting focus to more lucrative small and medium-sized businesses. The company's partnership with American Express to offer exclusive shipping discounts to small businesses is seen as a strategic step in this direction Should the New Amex Partnership Prompt a Rethink of UPS’s (UPS) Small Business Growth Strategy?^[2].

Despite the downgrade, analysts remain optimistic about UPS's long-term prospects. The company's narrative projects $94.5 billion in revenue and $7.1 billion in earnings by 2028, requiring a 1.5% yearly revenue growth and a $1.4 billion increase in earnings from its current level of $5.7 billion Should the New Amex Partnership Prompt a Rethink of UPS’s (UPS) Small Business Growth Strategy?^[2]. The most optimistic analysts expect UPS revenue to reach $96.7 billion and earnings of $8 billion by 2028, assuming automation and digital investments unlock global efficiency Should the New Amex Partnership Prompt a Rethink of UPS’s (UPS) Small Business Growth Strategy?^[2].

However, investors should remain cautious, as tariffs and shifting global supply chains still pose significant risks. The Zacks Rank system, which has a proven track record of outperformance, currently ranks UPS as a #1 stock, suggesting that investors may still find value in the stock despite the recent downgrades and earnings concerns.