Unlocking the Tariff Truce: Strategic Plays in the 90-Day Window

The U.S.-China tariff truce, extended through August 30, 2025, has created a rare “window of opportunity” for investors to capitalize on near-term earnings upgrades across manufacturing, technology, and logistics sectors. With cross-Pacific tariffs temporarily capped at 10%, companies reliant on trade between the world’s two largest economies are poised to benefit from reduced costs, accelerated supply chains, and renewed export momentum. Yet this respite is fragile: lingering risks of decoupling, geopolitical tensions, and the looming expiration date demand swift, strategic action. Below, we dissect the most compelling sector-specific bets—and why investors should act now before the window slams shut.

The Tech Sector: Semiconductor Equipment Rides the Wave

The semiconductor industry stands to gain the most immediate uplift. U.S. firms like Applied Materials (AMAT) and Lam Research (LRCX), which supply critical equipment to chipmakers globally, face fewer barriers to exporting to China’s voracious manufacturing hubs. With tariffs on semiconductor components slashed from 34% to 10%, production costs drop, margins expand, and orders for advanced machinery surge.

Why now? The truce aligns with China’s push to boost domestic chip production, creating a virtuous cycle of demand for U.S. equipment. However, investors must monitor geopolitical headwinds: U.S. export controls on advanced chips remain in place, and China’s retaliatory tariffs on agricultural and energy goods could trigger a renewed cycle of escalation post-August.

Manufacturing & Aerospace: Rebuilding Supply Chains

The aerospace sector, battered by years of punitive tariffs, now sees a reprieve. Companies like Boeing (BA) and Lockheed Martin (LMT)—which rely on Chinese suppliers for parts and face heavy demand from Chinese airlines—are seeing inventory costs drop and order backlogs clear. Meanwhile, industrial giants like Caterpillar (CAT) and 3M (MMM), which depend on cross-border component flows, benefit from smoother logistics and lower input expenses.

Risks ahead: The truce does not resolve structural issues like IP disputes or China’s state subsidies for domestic manufacturers. A failure to reach broader agreements by August could reignite trade tensions, leaving aerospace and industrial stocks vulnerable.

Logistics & Transportation: The Race to Restock

Logistics firms like Maersk (MAERSK-B) and C.H. Robinson (CHRO) are beneficiaries of the tariff truce’s “restocking rally.” With tariffs on freight costs reduced, companies are accelerating orders to rebuild inventories before the deadline. Additionally, the revocation of China’s de minimis exemption (which previously imposed 54% duties on small shipments) has normalized postal imports, boosting parcel volume for firms like FedEx (FDX).

The urgency: Logistics stocks are pricing in truce optimism, but their upside hinges on sustained demand. If the truce expires without renewal, companies could face a sudden inventory glut and falling rates—a risk investors must weigh against short-term gains.

The Decoupling Dilemma: Risks Lurking in the Shadows

While the truce unlocks immediate opportunities, it does not resolve the deeper drivers of U.S.-China economic rivalry. China’s counter-tariffs on U.S. agricultural goods (15% on wheat, 10% on seafood) and its export controls on critical minerals like rare earths underscore the fragility of the truce. Companies in sectors like critical minerals mining (e.g., Rio Tinto (RIO)) or semiconductor design (e.g., AMD (AMD)) face long-term risks of supply chain fragmentation.

Conclusion: Deploy Capital Now—But Set an Alarm

The tariff truce’s 90-day window (now extended to 183 days) is a fleeting chance to capitalize on reconnected supply chains and inflated margins. Investors should prioritize semiconductor equipment (AMAT, LRCX), aerospace (BA, LMT), and logistics (FDX, CHRO) while the clock ticks. However, set alarms for August 30: the expiration date looms, and the absence of a permanent deal could erase gains in weeks. This is not a bet on perpetual harmony—it’s a tactical play to seize the upside while the truce lasts.

The stakes are clear: act decisively in the next 100 days, but don’t linger after August. The window of opportunity is open—don’t miss it.