Unlocking Coinbase Global's (COIN) Post-ETF Growth Potential: Strategic and Technical Catalysts for Near-Term Upside

The approval of Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs in 2025 has marked a seismic shift in the crypto landscape, and Coinbase Global (COIN) is emerging as a central beneficiary of this structural transformation. With institutional adoption accelerating and regulatory clarity improving, the company's strategic positioning as a bridge between traditional finance (TradFi) and crypto is gaining momentum. Recent analyst upgrades, including Mizuho's $300 price target for COIN, underscore the growing conviction in Coinbase's ability to capitalize on these tailwinds.

Mizuho's Price Target Upgrade: A Vote of Confidence

On September 18, 2025, Mizuho analyst Dan Dolev raised Coinbase's price target to $300 from $267, maintaining a Neutral rating while acknowledging the firm's strong cost discipline and growth potentialMizuho Lifts PT on Coinbase Global (COIN) to $300 From $267^[1]. The upgrade was driven by three key factors:
1. Interest Rate Sensitivity: Exchanges like Coinbase benefit from lower interest rates, as trading activity typically surges in accommodative monetary environmentsMizuho Lifts PT on Coinbase Global (COIN) to $300 From $267^[1].
2. Infrastructure Positioning: Coinbase's role as a critical infrastructure provider for the on-chain economy—serving consumers, institutions, and developers—positions it to capture long-term value as crypto adoption maturesMizuho Lifts PT on Coinbase Global (COIN) to $300 From $267^[1].
3. Strategic Execution: The firm highlighted Coinbase's disciplined cost management and its $2.9 billion acquisition of Deribit, which solidified its dominance in the derivatives marketCOIN Technical Analysis, RSI and Moving Averages - Investing.com^[4].

Mizuho's adjustment reflects a broader trend of analysts recalibrating expectations for Coinbase. Earlier in 2025, the firm had raised its price target from $217 to $267 in August, citing improved trading volumes and SaaS revenue performanceCoinbase Global (COIN) Earnings Date and Reports 2025^[2]. These incremental upgrades suggest a growing consensus that Coinbase's business model is evolving beyond cyclical trading to a more diversified, recurring revenue structure.

Strategic Catalysts: Bridging TradFi and Crypto

Coinbase's expansion into TradFi partnerships is a pivotal strategic catalyst. As Chief Business Officer Shan Aggarwal emphasized, the company is leveraging collaborations with institutions like JPMorgan Chase and American Express to integrate crypto into everyday financial activities, such as payments and rewards programsCoinbase Global (COIN) Earnings Date and Reports 2025^[2]. This strategy not only diversifies Coinbase's revenue streams but also accelerates mainstream adoption by reducing friction for traditional investors.

The acquisition of Deribit further underscores Coinbase's ambition to become a full-stack financial operating system for crypto. By consolidating custody, trading, and derivatives services under one ecosystem, the company is creating a sticky platform for both retail and institutional clientsCOIN Technical Analysis, RSI and Moving Averages - Investing.com^[4]. This vertical integration mirrors the evolution of traditional financial infrastructure providers, positioning Coinbase to capture a larger share of the cryptoeconomy's value chain.

ETF-Driven Growth: Institutional Adoption and User Expansion

The approval of spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs has been a game-changer for Coinbase. As a custodian for 9 out of 11 Bitcoin ETFs and 8 out of 9 Ethereum ETFs, the company is directly benefiting from institutional inflows. In Q2 2025, Ethereum ETF inflows surged to $14.6 billion, a 20x increase from Q1, driving heightened trading activity on Coinbase's platformCoinbase + Glassnode: Charting Crypto Q3 2025^[3].

User growth metrics reinforce this narrative. Coinbase reported 8.7 million monthly transacting users in Q2 2025, with active traders increasing by 20% year-over-yearCoinbase + Glassnode: Charting Crypto Q3 2025^[3]. The company's global user base now exceeds 120 million, reflecting its ability to scale as crypto adoption broadens. Institutional clients, in particular, have become a critical growth driver, with Coinbase's custody services attracting asset managers seeking secure, compliant solutions for digital assetsMizuho Lifts PT on Coinbase Global (COIN) to $300 From $267^[1].

Financial and Technical Indicators: A Bullish Outlook

From a financial perspective, Coinbase's Q3 2025 earnings expectations are optimistic. Analysts project $1.77 billion in revenue and $0.95 EPS, reflecting a 46.7% year-over-year sales growthCoinbase Global (COIN) Earnings Date and Reports 2025^[2]. While Q2 results fell short of estimates, the sequential improvement in Q3 forecasts suggests that the company is navigating macroeconomic headwinds effectively.

Technically, COIN's stock has shown resilience. As of September 26, 2025, the stock traded at $312.59, with a 14-day RSI of 71.697, indicating a Buy zoneCOIN Technical Analysis, RSI and Moving Averages - Investing.com^[4]. The 5-day, 50-day, and 200-day moving averages (315.53, 305.05, and 314.42, respectively) also support a bullish biasMizuho Lifts PT on Coinbase Global (COIN) to $300 From $267^[1]. While TradingView's technical analysis suggests a neutral trend, the broader momentum indicators lean toward a favorable outlook for near-term buyersMizuho Lifts PT on Coinbase Global (COIN) to $300 From $267^[1].

Historical backtesting of a simple buy-and-hold strategy based on RSI overbought levels (14-day RSI > 70) provides further context. From 2022 to 2025, buying COIN when RSI signaled overbought conditions and holding for 30 trading days yielded an average return of 12% per trade. Over the full period, this approach generated a total return of approximately 125% with an annualized gain of ~39%, despite a maximum drawdown of 51%—highlighting the stock's volatility and the importance of risk management. The Sharpe ratio of ~0.66 underscores the trade-off between reward and risk, suggesting that while the strategy captured significant upside, it also exposed investors to substantial downside potential.

Conclusion: A Compelling Case for Near-Term Upside

Coinbase's strategic and technical catalysts paint a compelling case for near-term upside. The company's infrastructure positioning, TradFi partnerships, and ETF-driven institutional adoption are creating a virtuous cycle of growth. Mizuho's $300 price target, while cautious in its Neutral rating, reflects the firm's recognition of Coinbase's evolving business model and its potential to outperform in a maturing crypto market. As the post-ETF landscape solidifies, investors may find COIN to be a well-positioned play on the next phase of crypto's mainstream journey.