Universal Music Group: A Golden Opportunity in the U.S. Listing Sunrise

Universal Music Group (UMG), the world’s largest music company, stands at the precipice of a transformative moment. With activist investor Bill Ackman’s Pershing Square preparing to shift its focus away from Amsterdam—where antisemitic tensions accelerated its exit—the stage is set for UMG to unlock its full potential through a U.S. listing. This strategic realignment, driven by contractual obligations and undervaluation, creates a compelling buy opportunity for investors poised to capitalize on secular growth and a pending re-rating.

The Catalyst: U.S. Listing Unlocks Value

Ackman’s 10% stake in UMG, while now reduced to 7.6% post-share sales, retains contractual muscle: Pershing Square’s 2021 deal grants it the right to force a U.S. listing after selling $500 million of shares—a threshold met in March 2024. UMG must now file with the SEC by September 2025, paving the way for a dual listing that could finally bring its stock onto major U.S. exchanges like the NYSE. This move is a game-changer.

Why? U.S. listings attract broader institutional investor interest, including passive funds tied to indices like the S&P 500. Currently, UMG trades at a 20% discount to its 2021 spinoff peak, in part because its Amsterdam listing excludes it from these indexes. A U.S. listing could lift its valuation by 30%+ as liquidity improves and analyst coverage expands.

Data shows UMG’s underperformance: its stock rose 12% while peers gained 35% over the same period.

Fundamentals: A Catalog of Growth

Ackman’s exit doesn’t mean UMG’s story ends—it’s just beginning. The company’s Q1 2025 results underscore its resilience:
- Revenue hit €2.9 billion, up 11.8% YoY, driven by streaming subscriptions and vinyl sales.
- Adjusted EBITDA grew 11.8%, to €661 million, with margins holding steady at 22.8%.
- Streaming’s evolution: While TikTok’s ad-supported model muted growth (2.9% in constant currency), UMG’s “Streaming 2.0” strategy—monetizing user-generated content—could reignite revenue.

Its crown jewel? A catalog spanning 5 million songs, including timeless hits by Taylor Swift, The Weeknd, and Kendrick Lamar. This asset is a moat against streaming platform competition, generating steady income even as subscriber growth slows.

Why Buy Now?

1. Catalyst Timing: The SEC filing deadline (September 2025) is imminent. Investors who act before the listing announcement could capture the “pop” in valuation.
2. Multiple Expansion: At 14.5x EV/EBITDA, UMG trades below peers (Sony Music: 16x). A U.S. listing could narrow this gap.
3. Secular Tailwinds: Music consumption is booming—global streaming revenue hit $25 billion in 2024—and UMG commands 30% of the market. Its catalog is a gold mine for AI-driven personalization and licensing.

Risks? Manageable

• Regulatory Delays: The SEC could stall filings, but UMG’s Q1 results and Pershing’s contractual push mitigate this.
• Market Volatility: A U.S. listing won’t inoculate against macroeconomic headwinds, but UMG’s recurring revenue model offers stability.

Conclusion: Act Before the Sunrise

UMG’s U.S. listing isn’t just a shareholder squabble—it’s a value-creation milestone. With fundamentals firing on all cylinders and a catalyst looming, investors who buy now could ride a re-rating wave as the company finally gains the exposure it deserves. Act swiftly: The music of opportunity plays only once.

Data shows consistent YoY growth, with 2025 estimates pointing to a 12% rise from 2024.

Recommendation: Buy UMG ahead of the Q3 2025 SEC filing deadline. Target price: €35–€40 (30% upside from current levels). Hold for 12–18 months as the U.S. listing unlocks its true worth.