UnitedHealth Group's Stock Ownership Structure Amidst 56% YTD Decline

UnitedHealth Group (UNH) stock has dropped over 56% in 2025 due to rising medical costs, a DOJ probe, executive changes, and disappointing Q2 results. Despite missing EPS consensus, the company reaffirmed its full-year guidance and provided a clearer 2025-2026 outlook. Top shareholders include Vanguard (8.89%) and Vanguard Index Funds (7.03%). UNH has a Moderate Buy consensus rating with a 28.93% upside potential.

UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (NYSE:UNH) has experienced a tumultuous 2025, with the stock dropping over 56% due to rising medical costs, a DOJ probe, executive changes, and disappointing Q2 results. Despite missing EPS consensus, the company reaffirmed its full-year guidance and provided a clearer 2025-2026 outlook.

On July 30, Oppenheimer analyst Michael Wiederhorn reduced the price objective on UNH’s stock to $325 from $400, while keeping an “Outperform” rating [1]. The 2025 adjusted-EPS guidance of $16.00-plus reflects the company's return to growth in 2026 and beyond. UnitedHealth Group expects moderate EPS growth in 2026, with acceleration thereafter.

The company's 2025 outlook includes revenues of $445.5 billion - $448.0 billion, net earnings of at least $14.65 per share, and adjusted earnings of at least $16.00 per share. This implies H1 2025 performance and expectations for the balance of the year, including higher realized and anticipated care trends.

Retail sentiment for UNH has been mixed, with some investors hoping for further downside to build a position, while others are aggressively bullish on the stock. On Stocktwits, retail sentiment for UNH was 'extremely bullish' amid a 115% surge in 24-hour message volume [2]. Wayne DeVeydt, a seasoned healthcare executive, was named CFO, replacing John F. Rex, who will shift into a strategic advisory role to CEO Stephen Hemsley.

The stock is down more than 50% year-to-date, reflecting deep investor concerns following months of downward revisions, uncertainty, and leadership turnover. Despite the challenges, UNH has a Moderate Buy consensus rating with a 28.93% upside potential.

References:
[1] https://finance.yahoo.com/news/oppenheimer-reduces-pt-unitedhealth-group-033234095.html
[2] https://stocktwits.com/news-articles/markets/equity/united-health-s-cfo-shake-up-doesn-t-deter-retail-bulls-traders-call-stock-a-2018-level-opportunity/chr3k1VRdGi