UnitedHealth's $1.85B Volume Ranks 47th in Market Amid Senate Risk Adjustment Scrutiny

Market Snapshot

On January 13, 2026, UnitedHealth Group (UNH) traded with a volume of $1.85 billion, marking a 23.72% decline from the previous day’s trading activity and ranking 47th in market volume. The stock closed down 1.93%, reflecting investor caution amid ongoing regulatory scrutiny and concerns over its Medicare Advantage risk adjustment practices. The drop in both volume and price highlights heightened market sensitivity to the company’s exposure to potential policy shifts and financial penalties.

Key Drivers

The Senate Judiciary Committee’s report accusing UnitedHealth of “turning risk adjustment into a business” has intensified investor concerns. The report, which reviewed 50,000 pages of internal records, alleged the company systematically added diagnoses to patient records to inflate Medicare Advantage payments, a practice it criticized as deviating from the program’s original intent. This scrutiny followed prior investigations by the Wall Street Journal and the Department of Justice, which UnitedHealth disclosed in July. While the company denied wrongdoing, citing compliance with regulatory standards, the report has exacerbated fears of stricter oversight, audits, or policy reforms that could pressure its revenue streams.

Bernstein analyst Lance Wilkes’ recent reaffirmation of an “Outperform” rating and $444 price target for UNH suggests market skepticism about the severity of the Senate findings. Wilkes characterized the report as “not new news,” noting that regulatory risks are already reflected in the stock’s valuation. This view is supported by UNH’s low beta of 0.43, underscoring its historically stable performance. However, the firm also warned of potential financial impacts from audits and investigations, estimating possible penalties of $1–3 billion. These risks, combined with the Senate’s focus on risk adjustment practices, remain critical overhangs for the stock.

UnitedHealth’s strategic responses and earnings guidance offer a counterbalance to the negative sentiment. The company plans to reaffirm its adjusted 2025 earnings-per-share guidance of at least $16.25 during investor meetings on January 12, 2026, ahead of its full-year 2025 results and 2026 outlook on January 27. CEO Stephen Hemsley emphasized the company’s commitment to “durable and accelerating growth” in 2026, citing cost efficiencies in Medicare Advantage programs. Despite the Senate report, UnitedHealth highlighted actuarial studies showing Medicare Advantage is 9% cheaper for the federal government than traditional Medicare, a key argument in defending its business model.

Broader policy uncertainties further complicate the outlook. The Senate report’s focus on risk adjustment practices could accelerate regulatory reforms, such as stricter payment rules or enhanced audits, which might reduce the program’s profitability for insurers. Analysts also noted the potential impact of the Cassidy Bill, which could introduce home risk assessments to curb aggressive coding. These developments, coupled with CMS’s rollout of the V28 risk model—a framework expected to reduce plan revenue—pose long-term challenges for UnitedHealth’s Medicare Advantage expansion.

Investor attention now turns to UnitedHealth’s January 27 earnings call, where management will address medical cost trends, risk adjustment practices, and the financial implications of ongoing investigations. While the company’s strong fundamentals—10.48% revenue growth and a 2.6% dividend yield—provide a defensive edge, the interplay between regulatory pressures and its strategic resilience will likely dictate the stock’s trajectory in the near term. For now, the market remains in a holding pattern, awaiting clarity on whether the Senate’s criticisms will translate into concrete policy actions or financial penalties.