United Rentals Surges 4.46% on Intraday Rally: What's Fueling the Momentum?

Summary
• URI jumps 4.46% to $845.38, breaking above 30D SMA of $808.23
• Intraday range spans $810.59 to $847.15, signaling aggressive buying
• Options chain sees 2026-01-09 calls dominate with 35,072 contracts traded

United Rentals (URI) is experiencing a sharp intraday reversal as the stock surges 4.46% to $845.38, driven by a breakout above key technical levels. With turnover hitting 325,081 shares and options activity concentrated in near-term calls, the market is pricing in renewed bullish momentum. The Rental & Leasing Services sector remains mixed, with sector leader Herc Holdings (HRI) up 2.87%.

Technical Rebound Drives URI Higher Amid Short-Term Bearish Reversal
The 4.46% intraday rally in URI is primarily fueled by a technical breakout above the 30D SMA of $808.23 and the upper Bollinger Band at $836.89. The MACD (-4.11) has crossed above the signal line (-7.28), while RSI (48.38) suggests neutral momentum. Buyers are targeting the 52W high of $1021.47, with the 200D SMA at $801.93 acting as a critical support level. The short-term bearish trend identified in the Kline pattern is showing signs of reversal.

Sector Lags as URI Outperforms: HRI Trails with 2.87% Gain
While URI surges 4.46%, the Rental & Leasing Services sector remains underperforming relative to its 21.91x dynamic P/E. Sector leader Herc Holdings (HRI) trades up 2.87%, but URI's outperformance suggests divergent momentum. The sector's mixed performance highlights URI's unique technical setup, with the stock trading above both its 30D and 200D moving averages.

Options Playbook: URI20260109C850 and URI20260109C855 Lead the Charge
• 30D SMA: $808.23 (above) • 200D SMA: $801.93 (below) • RSI: 48.38 (neutral) • MACD: -4.11 (bullish crossover) • Bollinger Bands: $836.89 (upper) / $785.81 (lower)

Key levels to watch include the 30D support zone ($799.37–$800.65) and 200D resistance ($804.69–$814.05). The 52W high of $1021.47 remains a distant target. For leveraged exposure, no ETF data is available, but options activity suggests aggressive positioning. Two top options:

• URI20260109C850 (Call, $850 strike, 2026-01-09 expiry):
- IV: 25.63% (high volatility)
- LVR: 77.97% (moderate leverage)
- Delta: 0.4556 (moderate sensitivity)
- Theta: -2.3199 (rapid time decay)
- Gamma: 0.01236 (moderate sensitivity to price changes)
- Turnover: 35,072 (high liquidity)
- Payoff at 5% upside ($887.15): $37.15 per contract
- This contract balances leverage and liquidity, ideal for a continuation of the current rally.

• URI20260109C855 (Call, $855 strike, 2026-01-09 expiry):
- IV: 20.09% (reasonable volatility)
- LVR: 137.43% (high leverage)
- Delta: 0.3637 (moderate sensitivity)
- Theta: -1.8205 (moderate time decay)
- Gamma: 0.01493 (strong sensitivity to price changes)
- Turnover: 25,155 (high liquidity)
- Payoff at 5% upside ($887.15): $32.15 per contract
- Offers higher leverage with acceptable liquidity, suitable for aggressive bulls.

Aggressive bulls may consider URI20260109C850 into a breakout above $850, with URI20260109C855 as a secondary play for higher leverage.

Backtest United Rentals Stock Performance
The backtest of URI's performance after a 4% intraday increase from 2022 to the present shows favorable results. The 3-Day win rate is 53.20%, the 10-Day win rate is 56.12%, and the 30-Day win rate is 60.00%, indicating that the ETF tends to experience positive returns in the short term following the intraday surge. The maximum return during the backtest period was 6.73%, which occurred on day 58, suggesting that there is potential for gains but with some volatility.

Bullish Setup Confirmed: URI Eyes $850 as Next Catalyst
The technical setup for URI suggests a continuation of the current rally, with the 2026-01-09 options chain indicating strong positioning above $850. Investors should monitor the 30D SMA ($808.23) and 200D SMA ($801.93) for potential support. The sector leader HRI's 2.87% gain underscores the sector's mixed momentum, but URI's technical strength positions it as a standout. Watch for a sustained close above $850 to validate the breakout, with the 52W high of $1021.47 as the ultimate target.