United Rentals Skyrockets 3.58%—Is This the Dawn of a New Bullish Era?

Summary
• United Rentals (URI) surges to a 52-week high of $903.76, up 3.58% intraday
• Q2 earnings beat and raised guidance fuel investor optimism
• Sector peers like Herc Holdings (HRI) rally 5.05% as rental demand surges
United Rentals has ignited a firestorm in the rental & leasing sector, surging 3.58% to $900.82 as of 2:48 PM ET. The stock’s intraday high of $903.755 matches its 52-week peak, driven by a Q2 earnings beat, raised full-year guidance, and robust demand in construction and industrial sectors. With turnover at 127,601 shares and a dynamic P/E of 25.42, the move reflects a perfect storm of operational strength and sector tailwinds.

Q2 Earnings Beat and Guidance Hike Ignite Investor Confidence
United Rentals’ 3.58% surge stems from a Q2 earnings report that exceeded expectations and a subsequent $100 million revenue guidance increase. The company reported $3.94 billion in revenue, surpassing forecasts by 0.8%, while raising EBITDA guidance by $50 million. Analysts at Bernstein and KeyBanc raised price targets to $885 and $960, respectively, citing strong Specialty segment growth (14% YoY) and strategic initiatives like enhanced safety training programs. The stock’s momentum is further fueled by a 28% YTD gain, outperforming the S&P 500’s 9.17% return.

Rental & Leasing Services Sector Trails URI’s Momentum
While the Rental & Leasing Services sector gained 2.83% intraday, United Rentals outperformed peers like Herc Holdings (HRI, +5.05%) and AerCap (AER, +2.31%). URI’s 28.29% YTD return dwarfs the sector’s 6.48% gain, reflecting its dominant market share and strategic focus on high-margin specialty rentals. Competitors like U-Haul (UHAL, -15.62% YTD) and Hertz (HTZ, -37.78% YTD) lag, underscoring URI’s ability to capitalize on construction and infrastructure demand.

Options Playbook: Leverage URI’s Volatility with Gamma-Driven Calls
• 200-day average: 733.02 (below current price)
• RSI: 70.56 (overbought)
• MACD: 24.41 (bullish divergence)
• Bollinger Bands: Price at 903.76 (near upper band at 923.93)
URI’s technicals suggest a continuation of its bullish trend, with key support at 858.56 and resistance at 923.93. The stock’s 70.56 RSI and 24.41 MACD signal overbought momentum, while the 200-day average lags 16% below the current price. Traders should watch the 874.03 intraday low as a critical support level.

Top Option 1: URI20250815C900
• Contract Code: URI20250815C900
• Type: Call
• Strike Price: $900
• Expiration: 2025-08-15
• IV: 23.73% (moderate)
• Leverage Ratio: 82.88% (high)
• Delta: 0.5703 (moderate sensitivity)
• Theta: -5.4577 (high time decay)
• Gamma: 0.0175 (strong price sensitivity)
• Turnover: 18,599 (high liquidity)
This call option offers a 541.18% price change ratio and 82.88% leverage, ideal for capitalizing on URI’s near-term volatility. With a 23.73% IV and high gamma, it benefits from price swings above $900. A 5% upside to $945.86 would yield a payoff of $45.86 per contract, netting $458.60 per 100 shares.

Top Option 2: URI20250815C905
• Contract Code: URI20250815C905
• Type: Call
• Strike Price: $905
• Expiration: 2025-08-15
• IV: 23.41% (moderate)
• Leverage Ratio: 110.16% (very high)
• Delta: 0.4813 (moderate sensitivity)
• Theta: -4.7900 (high time decay)
• Gamma: 0.0180 (strong price sensitivity)
• Turnover: 5,640 (solid liquidity)
This option’s 110.16% leverage and 23.41% IV make it a high-reward play for a breakout above $905. A 5% upside to $945.86 would generate a $40.86 payoff per contract, netting $408.60 per 100 shares. Aggressive bulls should consider URI20250815C905 into a break above $905.

Backtest United Rentals Stock Performance
The backtest of URI's performance after a 4% intraday surge shows favorable results, with win rates and returns indicating positive short-to-medium-term gains. The 3-Day win rate is 55.36%, the 10-Day win rate is 57.26%, and the 30-Day win rate is 65.62%, suggesting that URI tends to perform well in the immediate aftermath of such events. The maximum return observed was 9.00% over 30 days, which implies that there is potential for significant price appreciation following the intraday surge.

URI’s Rally Gains Legs—Act Now Before Gamma-Driven Volatility Peaks
United Rentals’ 3.58% surge is underpinned by Q2 outperformance, sector leadership, and technical momentum. With RSI at 70.56 and MACD divergence, the stock is primed for a continuation above $903.76. Investors should prioritize the URI20250815C900 and URI20250815C905 options to leverage its gamma-driven volatility. Watch Herc Holdings (HRI, +5.05%) for sector cues and key levels at $900 and $905. If $900 holds, URI’s 52-week high could be just the beginning.