Why United Parks’ Q1 Miss Masks a 2025 Goldmine

The market’s immediate reaction to United Parks & Resorts’ (NYSE: PRKS) Q1 2025 earnings miss was swift: shares plummeted 9% on the news of a $8.87 million revenue shortfall. But beneath the headline numbers lies a story of temporary headwinds overshadowing a structural growth explosion. For investors willing to look past the noise, this dip presents a rare opportunity to buy a company primed for a summer surge—and a full-year record.

The Q1 Dip: A Calendar-Driven Mirage

The miss was no accident. United Parks explicitly cited two factors:
1. Easter and Spring Break Timing Shifts: These peak visitation periods occurred later in 2025 than 2024, pushing $28 million in revenue into Q2 and causing a 4.2% decline in admissions pricing.
2. One-Time Expense Swells: A $5.7 million spike in Q1 costs—including non-recurring accounting changes and lost prior-year credits—worsened the bottom line.

But these are transient issues, not fundamental flaws. As CEO Marc Swanson noted, “75% of our historical attendance and revenue still lies ahead” as of April 30.

The Rally is Already Underway: April Attendance Jumps 8.1%

The company’s April performance erased Q1’s gloom:
- Attendance surged 8.1% year-over-year, with day-to-day comparisons showing a 3% increase.
- In-park spending hit a record $38.58 per guest, driven by premium offerings like Discovery Cove’s all-inclusive wildlife experiences.

This momentum is no fluke. United Parks is leveraging seasonal demand recovery and strategic investments to supercharge 2025:

Structural Growth Drivers Igniting a Firehose of Cash

1. Discovery Cove’s Booking Surge:
2. 2025 reservations for this premium dolphin-swim attraction are outpacing 2024 levels, with CEO Swanson calling it a “key growth lever.”

3. High-margin appeal: Discovery Cove’s bundled pricing (starting at $160/person) generates 3x the revenue per guest of standard park tickets.

4. New Attractions Fueling Demand:

5. SeaWorld San Diego’s Jewels of the Sea and Busch Gardens’ Big Bad Wolf’s Revenge coaster are drawing crowds, with same-day bookings up 15% in Q1.

6. These investments align with a $286 million capital plan to enhance guest experiences and justify premium pricing.

7. International and Group Sales Rebound:

8. International attendance, once at 6-7% of total guests, is rising as travel restrictions ease.
9. Group bookings (schools, corporations) are also surging, a segment with 15% higher margins due to bulk pricing.

EBITDA Guidance: A Full-Year Record is Still Brewing

Despite Q1’s stumble, United Parks reaffirmed its 2025 revenue and Adjusted EBITDA guidance, projecting a 12% EBITDA margin expansion—its highest since 2019. The catalyst?
- Summer’s Cash Flow Tsunami: Peak season (May–August) historically contributes 65% of annual revenue.
- Cost Efficiency Wins: $50 million in identified savings (via automation and real estate partnerships) will drop straight to the bottom line.

Why Now is the Buying Opportunity

The Q1 miss has created a valuation floor for PRKS shares, currently trading at 14x forward EBITDA—a 30% discount to peers like Six Flags (FSA). Yet the company’s 2025 trajectory defies this undervaluation:
- Upside Catalysts: Discovery Cove’s 45th-anniversary celebrations (April 2025), the opening of Orlando’s Expedition Odyssey, and a $20 million sponsorship deal pipeline.
- Debt Reduction: A $100 million share repurchase in Q1 signals management’s confidence to return capital as cash flows boom.

Final Call: Buy the Dip Before Summer Ignites

The Q1 miss was a paper cut, not a mortal wound. With April’s attendance surge, Discovery Cove’s booking momentum, and a full slate of attractions, United Parks is primed to deliver a year of record results. Investors who act now can capture the summer’s upside—and ride the structural growth wave for years to come.

The market’s myopic focus on Q1’s calendar quirks has created a buying opportunity too good to ignore. This is a once-in-a-cycle chance to own a theme park giant at a discount—just before its most profitable season.