United Parcel's 15min chart shows MACD and KDJ death crosses.

United Parcel's 15-minute chart has exhibited a MACD Death Cross and KDJ Death Cross at 08/15/2025 15:30, indicating a potential for the stock price to continue declining. The momentum of the stock price is shifting towards the downside, suggesting a potential for further decreases.

United Parcel Service (UPS) has been facing significant headwinds in the market, with its stock experiencing a 15-minute chart that exhibited a MACD Death Cross and KDJ Death Cross on August 15, 2025, at 15:30. This technical indicator suggests a potential for the stock price to continue declining, as the momentum of the stock price is shifting towards the downside [2].

UPS, a global logistics powerhouse with a market cap of $74 billion, has underperformed the broader market over the past year and in 2025. The company's stock has plunged 30.1% over the past 52 weeks and 23.8% on a YTD basis, compared to the S&P 500 Index's return of 19% over the past year and 10% in 2025 [1]. The stock has also lagged behind the iShares Transportation Average ETF's (IYT) 10.2% surge over the past 52 weeks and its 4.5% rise this year.

On July 29, UPS announced its fiscal second-quarter earnings. The company generated $21.2 billion in revenue, down 2.8% year-over-year, but slightly above estimates. Meanwhile, adjusted EPS of $1.55 missed forecasts. U.S. Domestic revenue dipped 0.8% on lower volumes and margin pressure. International revenue rose 2.6% but was hurt by a steep drop in China–U.S. shipments, and Supply Chain Solutions revenue plunged 18.3% after divesting Coyote Logistics [1].

The company cited weak consumer sentiment, tariff impacts, and soft demand, announcing $3.5 billion in 2025 cost cuts, including 20,000 layoffs. This move, along with the earnings miss, triggered a 10.6% drop in its stock. For the current year ending in December, analysts expect UPS’ EPS to decline 15.4% year over year to $6.53 [1].

Among the 29 analysts covering the stock, the consensus rating is a "Moderate Buy," based on 15 "Strong Buy" ratings, one "Moderate Buy," 11 "Holds," and two "Strong Sells" [1]. However, the mixed signals from technical indicators and analyst ratings suggest caution. On July 31, Citigroup Inc. (C) analyst Ariel Rosa maintained a "Buy" rating on UPS but cut the price target by 10.24%, from $127 to $114 [1].

Technically, UPS shows signs of strength with three bullish indicators and zero bearish ones, indicating strong upward momentum relative to recent volatility. However, the fundamentals and analyst ratings remain divided, with a simple average rating of 3.70 suggesting a slightly bullish stance, but when weighted by historical performance, the rating falls to a 3.00, indicating a more cautious view [2].

Investors should monitor the interplay of these signals, particularly the upcoming earnings reports and institutional buying activity, which remains strong. For now, consider waiting for a pullback before entering a long position.

References:
[1] https://www.inkl.com/news/united-parcel-stock-analyst-estimates-ratings
[2] https://www.ainvest.com/news/stock-analysis-united-parcel-outlook-closer-fundamentals-analysts-market-trends-2508/