United Airlines Stock Rises 5.6% Over Two Days On Heavy Volume As Technicals Turn Bullish

United Airlines Holdings (UAL) advanced 3.11% in the latest session, marking its second consecutive gain and bringing its two-day increase to 5.60%. This upward movement occurred on substantial volume of 23.4 million shares, with the stock trading between an intraday low of $89.05 and a high of $94.57 before closing at $91.22. Such performance suggests renewed buyer conviction following the prior session's 2.42% gain on 15.5 million shares. The strong two-day rally indicates potential shift in market sentiment after recent volatility.
Candlestick Theory
The price action formed a bullish piercing pattern on July 16-17, with the second candle closing above the midpoint of the previous day's bearish candle, indicating reversal potential. Key resistance is identified at $94.57 (July 17 high), which coincides with the yearly Fibonacci 38.2% retracement level. Support emerges near $86.50-$85.80, validated by multiple tests in mid-July. The long lower wick on July 17 (recovering from $89.05) signals rejection of lower prices, while closing near the session high suggests unfinished upside momentum.
Moving Average Theory
The current price trades above all critical moving averages: the 50-day MA (~$85.50), 100-day MA (~$82.80), and 200-day MA (~$76.20). This configuration confirms a bullish primary trend structure. The recent golden cross in May (50-day crossing above 200-day) preceded the current uptrend. The flattening 50-day MA near $85.50 may now act as dynamic support. The ascending alignment of all three averages demonstrates sustained upward momentum across timeframes.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
The MACD histogram shows accelerating bullish momentum, with the signal line maintaining its crossover above the zero line since July 10's 14.33% surge. This aligns with the KDJ indicator where the %K line (79.4) sustains above the %D line (63.8), indicating strong upside momentum, though approaching overbought territory. Both oscillators support continuation of the near-term bullish trend, though divergences remain absent currently.
Bollinger Bands
The July 10 breakout (+14.33%) triggered significant band expansion, with price now riding the upper Bollinger Band (20-day SMA ~$87.80 ± $4.20). This band expansion reflects increasing directional volatility. Recent closes above the upper band ($91.22 vs. upper band ~$92.00) demonstrate strong momentum, though typically unsustainable without mean reversion. The bands' expansion cycle supports breakout continuation if volume persists.
Volume-Price Relationship
Volume surged during key up moves: July 10 (20.76M shares, +14.33%) and July 17 (23.40M, +3.11%) with above-average volume confirming breakouts. Conversely, pullbacks like July 11 (-4.34%) occurred on diminishing volume (9.86M), suggesting lack of conviction in declines. This volume profile validates the sustainability of the current rally. The two-day volume surge totaling 38.9 million shares during the 5.60% advance signals institutional accumulation.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The 14-day RSI reading of 72.7 approaches overbought territory (>70) after the recent rally. Historically, RSI peaks above 75 (January 2025) have coincided with short-term tops, though prolonged overbought conditions can occur in strong uptrends. The current level suggests potential exhaustion risk but without bearish divergence, as the recent price highs correspond to similar RSI peaks during July rallies. Caution is warranted near the overbought threshold, though not yet signaling reversal.
Fibonacci Retracement
Applying Fibonacci to the January high ($116) and July low ($80.18) shows critical levels: 23.6% ($88.63) and 38.2% ($93.86). The recent breakout surpassed the 23.6% resistance, and July 17's high ($94.57) tested the 38.2% resistance before closing just below it. This level now presents the next significant technical barrier. Successful consolidation above $88.63 (former resistance now support) would reinforce bullish momentum for a retest of the $93.86-$94.57 resistance zone.
Confluence appears at the $93.86-$94.57 zone (Fibonacci 38.2% + July 17 high), where multiple technical factors align: Bollinger Band resistance, historical swing highs, and the psychological $95 level. Bearish divergences remain absent across indicators, though RSI and KDJ proximity to overbought territory warrant vigilance for profit-taking near resistance. The overall technical structure suggests upside continuation towards the $93.86-$94.57 resistance cluster, contingent on volume-supported consolidation above $90.00. A decisive break above $94.57 may target the 50% retracement at $98.09, while failure to hold $88.63 could trigger retracement to the $85.50 moving average support.