United Airlines Stock Jumps 6.7% in Two Days as Technicals Signal Bullish Rebound

United Airlines Holdings (UAL) advanced 3.93% in the most recent session, marking a two-day gain of 6.70%. This analysis employs multiple technical frameworks to assess the stock's positioning.
Candlestick Theory
Recent price action exhibits bullish characteristics. The session ending 2025-10-13 formed a hammer pattern at the $97.77 low, coinciding closely with the prior swing low of $96.39 (2025-10-10). This was confirmed by a robust bullish engulfing candle on 2025-10-14, closing near the session high at $103.15. Key resistance is evident at $104.13-$104.18, corresponding to the September consolidation floor. Support rests firmly at $96.65-$97.20, defending the gap created between 2025-10-09 and 2025-10-10. Sustained closes above $104.18 would signal bullish conviction.
Moving Average Theory
Current price ($103.15) trades above all key moving averages – the 50-day (~$94.50), 100-day (~$92.80), and 200-day (~$87.70). However, a concerning bearish crossover occurred recently as the 50-day MA crossed below the 100-day MA (a "death cross"), suggesting medium-term weakness despite the short-term rebound. The longer-term 200-day MA slope remains positive, indicating the primary trend hasn’t fully reversed.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
The MACD histogram shows increasing positive momentum after a bullish crossover near the zero line, supporting the recent rebound. The KDJ indicator, however, presents a divergence: The %K (83.2) and %D (77.8) are approaching overbought territory (>80), while price remains significantly below its late-September peak. This divergence suggests near-term exhaustion risk despite positive MACD momentum.
Bollinger Bands
Bands contracted notably during the decline into early October, indicating reduced volatility preceding the current advance. Price has moved sharply from the lower band towards the upper band ($105.50 projected), reflecting the volatility expansion phase typical of directional moves. Bandwidth expansion supports the continuation of this move if price can hold above the middle band (20-period SMA, ~$98.50).
Volume-Price Relationship
Recent gains, particularly the 6.70% two-day advance, were accompanied by significantly elevated volume (65.75M shares vs 46.11M previous day). This volume surge validates the breakout from the $97-100 consolidation area. However, the preceding sell-off (e.g., 2025-10-10: -4.61% on 66.56M shares) also saw high volume, highlighting sustained selling pressure before the rebound. Sustainability requires persistent high volume on further advances.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The 14-period RSI is at 63.7, having recovered sharply from oversold levels near 30 in early October. It currently resides in neutral territory, indicating room for further upside before the overbought threshold (>70). Its upward trajectory aligns with the price recovery, lacking negative divergence at this stage. However, proximity to the 70 level warrants monitoring for potential consolidation.
Fibonacci Retracement
Applying Fibonacci to the primary downtrend from the $109.36 high (2025-09-11) to the $96.67 low (2025-10-10) yields key levels. The 38.2% retracement ($101.76) was surpassed during the current rally. The 50% level is at $103.02, aligning closely with the current close ($103.15). The 61.8% retracement at $104.25 converges with the significant horizontal resistance at $104.13-$104.18. This zone represents the next critical test for bulls. The strong bounce from near the 88.6% retracement level ($97.75) underscores its importance as support.
Confluence and Conclusion
Multiple confluences exist: Volume supports the breakout, RSI allows further upside, and price interacts with the key 50% Fibonacci level ($103.02). Significant resistance converges at $104.13-$104.18 (horizontal price resistance, 61.8% Fibonacci). The bearish 50/100 MA death cross tempers bullish enthusiasm despite the sharp rebound. The overbought KDJ also signals near-term caution. Probabilistically, UAL appears positioned for a test of the $104.13-$104.18 resistance zone. Sustained trade above this level, confirmed by volume, would challenge the bearish MA crossover and signal a potential resumption of the primary uptrend. Failure here may trigger consolidation towards $100-$101 support.