United Airlines Shares Fall 0.76% on Surge in Volume; 222nd Ranked Stock Eyes Crucial Earnings Report

Market Snapshot

United Airlines (UAL) shares fell 0.76% on January 13, 2026, despite a notable surge in trading activity. The stock recorded a trading volume of $0.52 billion, a 34.2% increase compared to the previous day, and ranked 222nd in volume among all listed stocks. The decline came as the company prepares to release its Q4 2025 earnings results after the market close on January 20. Analysts anticipate earnings of $2.97 per share and revenue of $15.35 billion for the quarter, slightly below the company’s guidance of $3.00–$3.50 EPS. The stock’s recent performance reflects mixed investor sentiment ahead of the earnings report, with institutional investors and analysts maintaining a cautiously optimistic stance.

Key Drivers

The stock’s performance is heavily influenced by the upcoming Q4 2025 earnings report, which will serve as a critical test of United’s ability to meet or exceed analyst expectations. The company’s guidance of $3.00–$3.50 EPS suggests confidence in its financial resilience, particularly as domestic air-travel demand stabilizes and passenger volumes remain strong. However, analysts project a more conservative $2.97 EPS, indicating potential concerns over margin pressures from rising unit costs and lower revenue per mile. United’s Q3 2025 results, which showed a 16.5% year-over-year decline in EPS to $2.78, highlight the challenges posed by inflation, geopolitical uncertainties, and operational disruptions. These factors are expected to weigh on Q4 results, though the 2.6% year-over-year revenue growth in Q3 suggests underlying demand remains robust.

A significant factor shaping investor sentiment is the strong analyst support for the stock. United holds a “Moderate Buy” consensus rating, with a $135.33 average price target, as multiple firms—including JPMorgan, Citigroup, and UBS—have raised their targets in recent months. JPMorgan upgraded its price target to $156, while UBS and Citigroup also increased their estimates, reflecting confidence in United’s long-term recovery. This optimism is partly driven by the company’s strategic initiatives, such as capacity expansion and cost management, which analysts believe will enhance profitability in 2026. However, the recent downgrade from Weiss Ratings to a “Hold” rating underscores lingering concerns about near-term volatility.

Institutional activity further underscores the stock’s appeal. Large investors, including Boston Partners, AQR Capital Management, and Ameriprise Financial, increased their holdings in Q3 2025 by 4.5% to 17.4%, collectively owning over $579 million worth of shares. Amundi’s 68.1% increase in holdings during the same period highlights institutional confidence in United’s value proposition. Conversely, CEO J Scott Kirby’s sale of 120,000 shares for $12.9 million in December 2025—representing a 15.26% reduction in his ownership—introduced short-term uncertainty. While insider selling can signal mixed signals, the broader institutional buying trend suggests a net positive outlook for the stock.

The Zacks Earnings ESP model and analyst revisions provide additional context. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Q4 2025 earnings has declined 7.6% over 60 days to $3.05 per share, while the Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction) stands at -3.56%, indicating a potential earnings miss. This aligns with the Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) rating, suggesting limited upside for the stock ahead of the report. Despite United’s history of beating estimates in the trailing four quarters, the combination of a negative Earnings ESP and a neutral Zacks Rank reduces the likelihood of a positive surprise. Investors are likely to focus on management’s guidance for 2026, as the company’s ability to navigate macroeconomic headwinds and sustain revenue growth will determine long-term momentum.

Finally, broader industry trends and competitive dynamics play a role. The U.S. airline sector faces mixed earnings expectations, with capacity and traffic projected to grow 3.7% year-over-year but profitability constrained by weak pricing power. United’s 4.9% revenue growth in Q4 2025 is expected to outpace peers like Delta and American Airlines, but its 3.8% decline in EBITDAR highlights margin pressures. Analysts from Morgan Stanley and UBS note that airlines may adopt cautious 2026 forecasts to manage expectations, leveraging lower fuel prices and post-government shutdown demand recovery as tailwinds. For United, the ability to balance capacity expansion with cost discipline will be critical to regaining investor confidence and supporting its stock price.