United Airlines Beats Earnings but Hits Turbulence at $100

United Airlines (UAL) posted a strong third-quarter earnings beat on Wednesday, underscoring its resilience in a mixed air travel environment — but shares rolled over in early Thursday trading as a modest revenue miss and technical resistance around the $100 level weighed on sentiment. The stock failed to hold which saw shares dive to the $94 level. The Chicago-based carrier reported better-than-expected profit driven by higher-margin premium and loyalty segments, joining Delta in showcasing the spending power of affluent travelers. While the guidance for the current quarter was above consensus and management struck an optimistic tone about both economy and demand trends, the stock’s near-term technical picture looks precarious.

United reported adjusted EPS of $2.78, topping consensus of $2.63, on revenue of $15.2 billion — slightly below expectations of $15.33 billion. The miss reflected softer unit revenue metrics rather than a drop in overall volume, as capacity rose 7.2% year over year and traffic climbed 6.1%. Total operating revenue improved 2.6%, but total revenue per available seat mile (TRASM) fell 4.3%, and passenger revenue per available seat mile (PRASM) declined 5%. Costs, however, provided a partial offset: cost per available seat mile (CASM) was down 2.8% and CASM ex-fuel fell 0.9%, well ahead of analyst expectations. Adjusted net income came in at $900 million, translating to an operating margin that exceeded company guidance despite ongoing cost inflation in maintenance and labor.

By segment, United’s premium cabin revenue rose 6% year over year while loyalty revenue climbed 9%, marking record contributions from the airline’s two highest-margin categories. The company also posted a 4% gain in basic economy revenue, suggesting continued demand breadth across fare tiers. Regionally, the carrier saw sharp strength in its Middle East, India, and Africa routes (+30.8%), offset by weakness in Latin America (-4.8%) and Europe (-1.3%). CEO Scott Kirby credited the results to nearly a decade of investment in customer experience — from lie-flat Polaris seats to high-speed Wi-Fi and modernized lounges — noting that “those investments, combined with great service from our people, have allowed United to win and retain brand-loyal customers.” Kirby said macro volatility had “tested the system” but emphasized that United’s diversified model across customer types and regions is providing resilience and upside as the economy improves in Q4.

Looking ahead, management expects the current quarter to be its strongest ever by total operating revenue. United guided Q4 EPS to a range of $3.00–$3.50, above consensus of $2.87, and signaled accelerating revenue momentum driven by strengthening demand and favorable corporate travel trends. CFO Gerry Laderman said unit revenue should improve meaningfully year-over-year, aided by network optimization and steady premium-class sales. The company also reiterated plans to provide formal 2025 guidance during its Thursday call and confirmed ongoing investments of over $1 billion in customer experience initiatives through 2026, including additional Airbus A321neo/XLR and Boeing 737 MAX aircraft deliveries. United’s year-end fleet is expected to reach 59 A321neo/XLRs and 244 737 MAX jets, supporting capacity growth aligned with demand recovery.

Analyst reaction was broadly positive despite the top-line miss. UBS reiterated its Buy rating and $131 price target, noting that “Q4 outlook implies strong RASM and revenue acceleration on a tough year-ago comp” and that cost control remains impressive with CASM-ex tracking 2.5 percentage points below consensus. The firm attributed part of the revenue shortfall to Newark (EWR) disruptions, which it estimated shaved about one percentage point off Q3 RASM. Deutsche Bank went further, raising its price target to $125 from $100 and maintaining a Buy rating, arguing that “the long-term winners are airlines that maximize margins, free cash flow, and return on capital.” DBAB increased its December-quarter EPS forecast from $2.15 to $3.23 and full-year EPS from $9.50 to $10.75, citing the company’s ability to adapt swiftly to changing industry conditions.

Management’s tone during commentary was confident and forward-leaning. Kirby highlighted continued investment in every cabin class, stating, “We’ve invested in customers at every price point — from seatback screens and lie-flat Polaris seats to fast, free Wi-Fi on every plane by 2027.” He reiterated that United’s decade-long focus on customer loyalty is paying off in both revenue quality and pricing resilience, and he sees “significant upside as the economy and demand improve in the fourth quarter.” Operationally, the company noted efficiency gains at major hubs and improving reliability metrics following earlier issues at Newark Liberty Airport, which had temporarily constrained margins during peak summer months.

Still, investors remain cautious. The stock briefly rose 3% after the release but quickly faded as traders focused on the revenue miss and technical headwinds. UAL now hovers around $100, a zone crowded with support markers — the 20-day ($99.36), 50-day ($101.15), and the psychological round-number level. A sustained break below this range could trigger momentum selling toward the mid-$90s, while a hold and rebound could confirm the start of a post-earnings consolidation. Technicians note that relative strength in peers like Delta and Southwest hasn’t yet translated into leadership for United, keeping sentiment mixed.

In short, United Airlines delivered a solid operational performance that proved its premium and loyalty strategy is cushioning against a soft fare environment. The earnings beat, bullish Q4 outlook, and disciplined cost management reinforce confidence in 2026–2027 margin expansion, but near-term traders will be watching whether the $100 line holds. If the company’s optimistic guidance plays out as management expects, United’s fundamental altitude may be climbing — even as its stock tests for lift.