Uniswap/Tether (UNIUSDT) Market Overview

• Price fell sharply from 7.68 to 7.41 before rebounding to 7.504 at 12:00 ET.
• Key support tested at 7.41–7.43, with moderate bounce but no strong reversal.
• Volume spiked during selloff but has since declined, suggesting consolidation.
• RSI remains below 50, indicating bearish momentum, but no oversold territory reached.
• Volatility expanded during the decline, with price currently inside Bollinger Bands midrange.

Opening Summary and Market Context

Uniswap/Tether (UNIUSDT) opened at 7.668 on 2025-09-25 at 12:00 ET, reached a high of 7.681 and a low of 7.273, and closed at 7.444 on 2025-09-26 at 12:00 ET. Total volume over the 24-hour period was 3,413,726.1, and notional turnover amounted to $25,466,871.35. The pair has shown a directional bias lower, with consolidation beginning in the final hours.

Structure & Formations

Price action has formed a bearish flag pattern following a sharp decline, with key support levels observed around 7.41–7.43. A large bearish engulfing pattern was seen around 19:00–22:00 ET, confirming the downward shift. A doji near 05:00 ET suggests indecision and may signal a potential near-term bottoming process. The structure indicates a potential test of the 7.38–7.40 level as the next target.

Moving Averages and Time Frame Confluence

On the 15-minute chart, price remains below both the 20-period and 50-period moving averages, indicating bearish momentum. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA is currently at ~7.48, while the 200-period MA is at ~7.54, suggesting the pair is in a medium-term downtrend. A break below the 7.41–7.43 support zone could trigger a retest of the 7.35–7.38 level.

Momentum, Volatility, and Divergence

Relative Strength Index (RSI) declined to ~38.2 during the selloff but has since rebounded to ~45, showing moderate bearish momentum. MACD has been negative, with the histogram contracting as price consolidates. Bollinger Bands have expanded during the decline, with price currently trading in the midrange of the bands, suggesting reduced volatility and potential for a breakout or continuation.

Volume and Turnover Signals

Volume was particularly heavy during the early part of the selloff (17:30–19:45 ET), with one 15-minute candle showing a volume spike of ~270,144. The notional turnover during that period was among the highest of the day, confirming the strength of the bearish move. However, volume has since dropped significantly, indicating exhaustion or consolidation. Price and turnover remain aligned, with no clear divergence yet observed.

Fibonacci and Key Levels

Fibonacci retracement levels from the recent 7.68–7.273 swing show 7.42 as the 61.8% level and 7.50 as the 38.2% level. Price briefly tested the 61.8% level before bouncing, suggesting it could act as a short-term support or resistance zone. Daily Fibonacci levels also suggest 7.45 as a possible near-term target for a continuation of the bearish trend.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the recent bearish structure and confirmed support zones, a potential backtest strategy could involve shorting on a break below the 7.43 support level with a stop above the 7.50–7.52 resistance zone. A target of 7.35–7.38 aligns with Fibonacci projections and prior swing lows. A bullish long entry could be considered if price closes above 7.50, with a stop below 7.45. This approach leverages clear confluence between structure, momentum, and volume signals.