UniCredit Increases Stake in Alpha Bank to 26%, Boosting Net Profit Forecast

UniCredit has increased its stake in Greek lender Alpha Bank, doubling down on their partnership. The Italian bank now holds around 26% of Alpha Bank, with the total shareholding valued at approximately $284 million. UniCredit expects the investment to generate around 244 million euros in net profit next year and said it would knock about 65 basis points off its CET1 ratio.

Citigroup has resumed coverage of Italy's second-largest bank, UniCredit, with a "buy" rating. The brokerage cited higher earnings forecasts and potential M&A opportunities as the primary reasons for the upgrade. The 2026-2027 earnings per share (EPS) estimates were raised by 3-5%, driven by additional income from the bank's stakes in Commerzbank and Alpha Bank [1].

Citi's revised net interest income (NII) modeling also contributed to the upgrade, with a potential benefit from a deposit hedge with a notional value of 183 billion euros ($214.24 billion). The brokerage expects an all-in capital return yield of around 10-11% and additional M&A optionality. The revised net profit forecasts are now broadly in line with consensus [1].

UniCredit's recent increase in its stake in Greek lender Alpha Bank, now holding around 26% of the bank, is expected to generate around 244 million euros in net profit next year. This investment is valued at approximately $284 million and is expected to knock about 65 basis points off its CET1 ratio [2].

Citi has set a new target price of 74 euros, offering a 15% expected total return (ETR). Shares are up 1% to 67.07 euros at 07:05 GMT, after rising as much as 1.3%, gaining 74.28% YTD including today's rise [1].

Out of 19 analysts, 13 rate the stock "strong buy" or "buy," six "hold" and no analysts rate the stock "strong sell" or "sell" - LSEG data [1].

References:
[1] https://www.tradingview.com/news/reuters.com,2025:newsml_L8N3UJ095:0-citi-resumes-unicredit-with-buy-on-capital-return-m-a-optionality/
[2] https://www.tradingview.com/news/reuters.com,2025:newsml_L8N3UJ095:0-citi-resumes-unicredit-with-buy-on-capital-return-m-a-optionality/