UNH Options Signal High-Risk Rebound: How Traders Can Navigate the 315 Put vs. 400 Call Imbalance

• UnitedHealth Group (UNH) trades at $320.84, down 1.04% amid antitrust scrutiny and bearish technicals.
• Options data shows a 0.48 put/call open interest ratio, with heavy call OI at $370 and put OI at $315.
• Bollinger Bands and RSI suggest oversold conditions, but 200D MA at $381.54 weighs on upside.
• The DOJ’s Optum probe raises regulatory risks, but a rebound near $318.50 could trigger short-term volatility.

The stock is caught in a regulatory crossfire, but options data hints at a volatile pivot. Here’s how to position for it.The 315 Put vs. 400 Call Showdown: A Bearish Bias with Hidden Bullish Triggers

UNH’s options chain tells a story of caution. For Friday’s expirations, the top OTM put has 2,832 open interests at $315, while the top OTM call sits at $370 with 3,495 OI. Next week’s data amplifies this tension: a $400 call (7,732 OI) and a $250 put (7,457 OI) dominate. This suggests two camps: one betting on a sharp drop to $250–$315 and another eyeing a rebound to $370–$400. The put/call ratio of 0.48 (calls > puts) leans bullish, but the sheer volume of deep puts at $250 and $220 (next week’s data) signals a fear of a 30%+ drop. Think of it like a storm brewing—traders are hedging for a downpour but leaving room for a sudden rainbow.

Regulatory Headwinds and Market Sentiment: A Perfect Storm?

The DOJ’s antitrust probe into Optum isn’t just noise—it’s a catalyst. Regulators are scrutinizing Optum’s vertical integration, which could force divestitures or behavioral changes. This explains the heavy put buying at $315 and below. But here’s the twist: the RSI at 17.6 is screaming oversold, and the price is clinging to the Bollinger Band’s lower bound at $320.24. If UNH holds above $318.50 (today’s low), the technicals might flip. Traders are pricing in a worst-case scenario, but the stock could rally on a “buy the rumor, sell the news” dynamic if the DOJ’s actions fall short of expectations. The key is whether the market views this as a temporary setback or a structural threat.

Actionable Trade Ideas: Puts for Protection, Calls for a Rebound

For options traders, the $315 put (expiring next Friday) is a high-probability play if the price breaks below $318.50. The $250 put is a longshot but offers 75% downside protection. On the bullish side, the $370 call (next Friday) could pay off if UNH rebounds off the lower Bollinger Band. For stock traders, consider these setups:

• Short-term bear play: Buy the $315 put (strike price $315) if UNH closes below $318.50. Target a 20% move to $250.
• Bullish rebound: Buy the $370 call (strike price $370) if the stock holds above $318.50. Target a 15% pop to $370.
• Stock entry: Buy UNH near $318.50 if it holds above the 30D support at $344.77. Set a stop-loss below $310.11 (200D support).

Volatility on the Horizon: Preparing for a Regulatory Crossroads

UNH’s future hinges on the DOJ’s next move. If regulators settle for behavioral fixes, the stock could rally toward the 30D MA at $344.77. But structural changes (like Optum divestitures) would push it toward the lower Bollinger Band. The options market is pricing in the latter, but technicals hint at a potential rebound. Traders should monitor the 30D RSI and volume—breakouts above $324.25 (today’s high) could signal a short-covering rally. This is a high-risk, high-reward scenario. Stay nimble, and don’t let fear of a 30% drop blind you to a 15% rebound. The road ahead is bumpy, but the data shows where to position your seatbelt.