UNH Options Signal Bullish Bias Amid Regulatory Headwinds: Key Strikes to Watch for Breakouts

UnitedHealth Group (UNH) is caught in a tug-of-war between regulatory risks and a surging options market. Here’s what traders need to know about the stock’s volatile setup, the psychology behind the options bets, and how to position for the next move.

• UNH’s stock jumped 4% today to $340.58, breaking above its 30-day moving average of $351.55.
• Options market sentiment is heavily skewed bullish: Call open interest (OI) totals 1.22M, nearly double the 582K puts.
• Top call strikes at $350 and $400 (expiring next Friday) suggest big money is pricing in a $350+ rebound.
• Antitrust investigations and margin pressures loom, but technicals hint at a potential short-term bounce.

Here’s the core insight: The options market is betting on a sharp rebound above $343.17 (today’s high), but regulatory risks could trigger a pullback to $313.37 (lower Bollinger Band). The stock shows upside potential in the short term, but caution is warranted for long-term holders.

The Options Battle: Calls Dominate, But Puts Signal Hidden Fears

Let’s break down the options data like a chess game. The call/put OI ratio of 0.48 (calls > puts) means traders are leaning bullish, but the distribution of strikes tells a more nuanced story.

This Friday’s top call OI is clustered at $345 ($4,392 contracts) and $350 ($4,024), while puts peak at $315 ($3,152). Next Friday’s data gets even more interesting: Calls at $400 ($8,183) and $380 ($6,586) suggest big money is hedging for a $380+ move. Meanwhile, puts at $250 ($7,472) and $300 ($7,398) reveal a bearish army bracing for a collapse below $300.

What does this mean? The call-heavy profile implies traders expect a rebound off current support levels ($321.56–$322.53). But the massive put OI at $300+ warns that a breakdown below $313.37 (lower Bollinger Band) could trigger panic selling. Think of it as a crowded room: Most people are cheering for a rally, but a few are already preparing for the roof to cave in.Regulatory Headlines: A Double-Edged Sword for UNH

The recent news isn’t pretty. Federal antitrust scrutiny of Optum’s vertical integration strategy and margin pressures in Medicare Advantage plans have sent the stock down 7% in a month. But here’s the twist: Options traders are already pricing in a resolution.

The Department of Justice’s investigation could force divestitures, but it also creates a narrative of “buy the rumor, sell the news.” If the stock dips on renewed headlines, the $315–$320 support zone (aligned with the 30-day support at $321.56) could attract bargain hunters. On the flip side, a regulatory delay or softer outcome might fuel a breakout above $347.56 (middle Bollinger Band).

Actionable Trade Ideas: Leverage the Options Imbalance

Let’s get specific. If you’re bullish on a short-term rebound, buy the $350 call expiring next Friday (OI: 5,080). Why? The strike sits just below the 30-day moving average ($351.55), and a close above $347.56 would validate the breakout. This option offers leverage if the stock surges past $350, with a breakeven around $350.50.

For downside protection, sell the $315 put expiring this Friday (OI: 3,152). The strike aligns with the lower Bollinger Band ($313.37), and the high OI suggests ample liquidity. If the stock holds above $321.56, these puts could expire worthless.

Stock traders: Consider entry near $321.56 if support holds. Set a stop-loss below $313.37 and target $347.56 (middle Bollinger Band) as a first exit. A break above $343.17 (today’s high) would signal momentum is shifting.

Volatility on the Horizon: Balancing Optimism and Caution

The next two weeks will test UNH’s resolve. A sustained close above $347.56 could reignite the bullish case, validating the call-heavy options bets. But a breakdown below $313.37 would validate the bearish puts and force a reevaluation of the stock’s fundamentals.

Here’s the takeaway: The options market is pricing in a $350+ rebound, but the news flow suggests a bumpy ride. Use the call/put imbalance as a guide—buy calls for a short-term rally, but keep a tight stop-loss. For longer-term investors, wait for clarity on the antitrust front before committing.

In the end, UNH is a stock caught between two worlds: a healthcare giant with a dominant market share and a regulatory target with uncertain risks. The options data gives us a snapshot of that tension—and a roadmap for navigating it.