UNH Options Signal Bullish Bet at $400 Calls Amid Bearish Technicals: Here’s How to Play the Divergence

• UNH’s price dropped 2.64% to $312.05, with RSI at 23—hinting at oversold conditions.
• Options data shows heavy call open interest at $400 strikes (9,476 contracts) and put OI at $300 (8,809), signaling a bullish/bearish tug-of-war.
• Hedge funds and analysts are bullish on UNH’s long-term AI-driven growth, but technicals warn of short-term volatility.

Here’s the thing: UnitedHealth Group’s stock is caught in a strange crossfire. On one hand, its technicals scream caution—a bearish short-term trend with RSI near oversold levels. On the other, options traders are piling into high-strike calls, betting the stock will rebound. The question isn’t just will it bounce—it’s how to position for the outcome. Let’s break it down.

The Options Imbalance: A Bullish Bet at $400, But Risk Lurks Below

Take a look at the options chain for Friday’s expirations. The $400 call options have a staggering 9,476 open contracts—the highest of any strike. That’s not random. Traders are pricing in a sharp rebound, possibly from news-driven optimism or a bounce off key support. But here’s the catch: the put-open interest at $300 (8,809 contracts) suggests a bearish floor. If the stock breaks below $306.29 (lower Bollinger Band), those puts could trigger a cascade of selling.

The put/call ratio of 0.47 (calls dominate) reinforces the bullish bias, but don’t ignore the technicals. The MACD histogram is negative (-2.13), and the 30-day moving average ($347.99) is a long way off. This isn’t a clean breakout—it’s a fight between short-term pain and long-term hope.

News Flow: Leadership Changes and AI Hype Fuel Optimism

The recent board appointments—Greg Arms and Scott Gottlieb—add credibility to UNH’s strategic direction. Gottlieb’s regulatory expertise, in particular, could smooth the path for Medicare Advantage reforms. Analysts like Jim Cramer and Motley Fool are touting UNH as a "dirt cheap" Warren Buffett stock, citing AI-driven efficiency in Optum. Hedge funds even added to their positions in Q3 2025, betting on operational leverage.

But here’s the rub: the market isn’t pricing in all that optimism yet. The stock’s 36.5% drop in 2025 has left it trading below its 200-day MA ($375.13). That means any rebound could be sharp—but also volatile. The options data reflects that tension: bullish bets at $400, but a bearish floor at $300.

Actionable Trade Ideas: Calls for the Bounce, Puts for the Drop

For options traders, the $400 call (Friday expiration) is a high-conviction play. If UNH holds above $308.77 (intraday low) and shows signs of reversing, this strike could see explosive gains. The risk? If the stock gaps lower, those calls become worthless. For a safer bet, consider the $310 put (next Friday expiration). It’s near the lower Bollinger Band and offers protection if the stock breaks below $306.29.

Stock traders, meanwhile, should watch $302.88 (200D support). If it holds, a rebound toward $321.50 (30D support) could follow. A breakdown below $302.88, however, targets $280 (next key level). Use the RSI (currently at 23) as a guide—oversold conditions often mean a bounce, but only if volume cooperates.

Volatility on the Horizon: Balancing Bullish Hype and Bearish Reality

The key takeaway? UNH is a stock with conflicting signals. The options market is pricing in a bullish rebound, but technicals warn of a fragile recovery. For traders, this divergence creates opportunities: long calls for the rally, or puts to hedge downside risk. For investors, the news flow—leadership changes, AI integration, and regulatory tailwinds—suggests the long-term story is intact.

But don’t ignore the short-term risks. The RSI is screaming for a bounce, but the MACD and Bollinger Bands warn of a potential breakdown. Monitor the 30D support at $321.50 and the 200D resistance at $375.13. If the stock can’t close above $341.32 (middle Bollinger Band), the bearish trend may resume.

In the end, UNH is a stock caught between two worlds: a struggling present and a promising future. The options data tells us where the bets are being placed. Now it’s up to the stock to decide which story wins.