UNH Options Signal $330 Put Contingency as Calls Target $340–$350 Breakout: Here’s How to Position for Volatility

• Put/Call ratio at 0.566 shows heavy call open interest at $340–$350, but a $330 put block trade hints at downside hedging.
• Block trade of 500 puts at $330 (UNH20260123P330) suggests institutional caution ahead of next week’s expiry.
• Bernstein’s $444 price target and reaffirmed 2025 guidance clash with regulatory risks and rising medical costs.

The stock is caught in a tug-of-war: technicals point to a short-term bearish drift, but options data and analyst upgrades hint at a potential breakout. Here’s how to navigate the crosscurrents.The Options Imbalance: Calls Bet on $340–$350, Puts Hedge at $330

Let’s start with the numbers. The options market is split: calls dominate open interest at $340–$350 (UNH20260123C340, UNH20260123C350), with 2,729 contracts at $340 alone. That’s a bet on a rebound above the 200-day MA ($340.75). But the $330 put block trade (UNH20260123P330) stands out—it’s a $190K trade for 500 puts, suggesting big players are hedging a drop below key support at $327.15.

Why does this matter? The $330–$340 range is critical. If UNH breaks above $336.20 (intraday high), the $340 calls could ignite. But a close below $331.51 (intraday low) would test the $327.15 support. The block trade at $330 implies a floor might be set there—but don’t ignore the risk of a breakdown if regulatory pressures intensify.

News vs. Options: A Clash of Optimism and Caution

Bernstein’s 33% upside target and reaffirmed 2025 guidance are bullish, but the reality is murkier. The Senate’s scrutiny of risk-adjustment tactics and Trump’s “Great Healthcare Plan” (which could disrupt UNH’s business model) add uncertainty. Yet, institutional buying (Country Trust Bank’s 10.6% stake increase) and dividend resilience (2.6% yield) keep the stock in favor.

Here’s the catch: options traders are pricing in volatility. The $330 put block trade and heavy call OI at $340–$350 suggest a “wait-and-see” approach. If the stock holds above $331.51, the $340 calls could be a play. But if it cracks $327.15, the $330 puts might cap the damage—but only if the block trade is a floor, not a trap.

Actionable Trades: Calls for Breakouts, Puts for Protection

1. Bullish Play: Buy UNH20260123C340 if UNH closes above $336.20. The $340 strike is a sweet spot—OI is high, and a break above the 200-day MA could trigger a rally toward Bernstein’s $444 target.
2. Bearish Hedge: Buy a put spread at $330–$320 (UNH20260123P330 + sell UNH20260123P320). This limits risk if the stock dips but avoids overpaying for downside protection.
3. Stock Entry: Consider buying near $331.51 (intraday low) if support holds. Target $336.20 as a near-term high, with a stop-loss below $327.15.

Volatility on the Horizon: Watch the $330–$340 Crossroads

The next 72 hours will be pivotal. If UNH holds above $331.51, the $340 calls and stock could see a surge. But a breakdown below $327.15 would validate the $330 put block trade as a hedge—and force a reevaluation of the bullish case. The key takeaway? This is a stock at a crossroads: regulatory risks vs. strategic upgrades, cost pressures vs. dividend resilience. Position yourself to capitalize on the breakout—or protect against the breakdown—with the right mix of options and stock moves.