UNFI Surges 8% Amid Cyberattack Fallout and Revised Forecasts – What's Next?

• UNFI shares leap 8.23% to $25.32, marking a 52-week low recovery from $12.00
• Cyberattack to cost $350M-$400M in sales, but insurance to offset losses
• Revised FY25 sales raised to $31.6B-$31.8B despite operational disruptions
• Technicals show RSI at 66.41, above 200-day average ($25.64), with Bollinger Bands expansion

United Natural Foods’ stock surged Thursday after disclosing its cyberattack recovery progress and financial resilience, though the 8% leap left bulls questioning whether momentum can hold. The company’s revised sales targets and insurance-backed recovery narrative fueled optimism despite lingering operational challenges.

Cyberattack Impact and Revised Financial Outlook Drive UNFI's Surge
UNFI’s stock skyrocketed after revealing normalized operations post-cyberattack, with sales losses capped at $400M and insurance expected to cover most costs. CEO Sandy Douglas emphasized operational recovery, while CFO Matteo Tarditi highlighted revised FY25 sales guidance and manageable EBITDA hits. The market cheered the clarity on insurance reimbursement timing and the company’s ability to delay only one new customer integration, signaling resilience in its $30B+ revenue engine. Technical buyers capitalized on a 52-week low rebound, pushing prices above resistance at $25.00.

Technical Bullish Signals and High-Impact Options to Monitor
Technical Indicators:
• RSI: 66.41 (Neutral-Bullish)
• Bollinger Bands: Current price above Upper Band ($24.33) – Breakout confirmed
• MACD: 0.34 (Positive histogram, bullish momentum)
• 200-Day MA: $25.64 (Current price slightly below, but closing above confirms trend)

Bulls should target $27.22 resistance (200-day upper support) while watching $24.20 (intraday low) as a floor. The sector leader SYY’s 0.88% gain suggests distribution sector stability, but UNFI’s technical breakout stands out.

Top Picks:
1. UNFI20250815C25 (Call, $25 Strike, Aug 15):
- IV Ratio: 43.10%, Delta: 0.597, Gamma: 0.121, Theta: -0.040
- Leverage: 16.23%, Turnover: $147,642
- Why: High gamma sensitivity amplifies gains if $27 resistance breaks; theta decay manageable.
- Payoff at $26.63 (5% rise): Max profit ~$1.63/share, 16.2% return vs. current price.

2. UNFI20250815C24 (Call, $24 Strike, Aug 15):
- IV Ratio: 46.73%, Delta: 0.704, Gamma: 0.0996, Theta: -0.042
- Leverage: 11.22%, Turnover: $21,435
- Why: Higher delta for immediate upside capture; theta decay offsets by mid-August.
- Payoff at $26.63: ~$2.63 profit/share, 10.7% return.

Hook: Aggressive bulls target UNFI20250815C25 into $27.22 resistance; theta decay favors short-term plays before August expiry.

Backtest United Natural Foods Stock Performance
The backtest of UNFI's performance after an 8% intraday surge shows mixed results. While the stock exhibited a positive reaction initially, the overall short-term and medium-term returns were modest, indicating that the gains were not well sustained.

UNFI Eyes $27 Resistance – Bulls Target Sustainable Momentum
UNFI’s 8% leap reflects investor relief over its cyberattack recovery and insurance-backed financial stability, but sustainability hinges on closing above $27.22 resistance. Technicals suggest a bullish bias with RSI in neutral territory, while options activity highlights $25-$27 as critical battleground levels. Monitor SYY’s 0.88% gain as a sector benchmark, but UNFI’s unique recovery narrative keeps it in focus. Investors should watch for a close above $27.22 to validate further upside – failure risks a pullback toward $24.20 support. Action: Fade rallies above $27.22 without volume confirmation; consider C25 calls if momentum holds.