Undervalued Altcoins in Overbought Crypto Market Cycles: Momentum-Based Opportunities in Solana (SOL) and SUI

The crypto market in October 2025 has been a rollercoaster of extremes. A sharp correction in early October-triggered by a U.S.-China trade tariff shock and overleveraged positions-erased $280 billion in market cap within 24 hours, with Bitcoin liquidations alone exceeding $19 billion, according to a Phemex analysis. Yet, amid the chaos, technical indicators and institutional dynamics suggest a nuanced picture: while the broader market exhibits mixed signals, altcoins like Solana (SOL) and SUI are emerging as compelling momentum-based opportunities.

The Overbought Paradox: Correction or Catalyst?

The October 2025 crash exposed systemic fragility in leveraged positions, particularly in altcoins like Solana and SUI, which saw open interest surge by 205% and 374% year-to-date, respectively, per a Blockchain.News prediction. However, this volatility has also created entry points for long-term buyers. Bitcoin's RSI, for instance, has stabilized in a neutral-bullish range (around 60), while institutional demand via ETFs-such as BlackRock's IBIT holding 740,000 BTC-reinforces a bullish macro narrative, the Phemex analysis also notes.

For altcoins, the post-crash environment is even more intriguing. Solana, a high-performance blockchain, is trading near $194 as of October 15, 2025, with an RSI of 70.30 (overbought) and a MACD histogram of 3.0649 (strong bullish momentum), the Blockchain.News prediction reported. Meanwhile, SUI, the token of the Sui blockchain, sits at $3.80, with an RSI of 53.52 (neutral) and a MACD of 0.0445 (rising bullish momentum), according to a CryptoYoog analysis. Both assets are navigating critical technical levels that could determine their next move.

Solana (SOL): A Post-Crash Rebound with Structural Strength

Solana's technical setup is a textbook example of resilience amid volatility. After a 14% weekly decline, the price is consolidating near $194, supported by the 50-day SMA ($195.41) and the 200-day SMA, as the Phemex analysis noted. While the 20-day SMA has turned bearish, reflecting short-term pain, the long-term bias remains intact.

Historically, a strategy of buying Solana when RSI is overbought (≥70) and holding for 30 trading days has yielded an average return of +8.71% with a total return of 157.39% from 2022 to 2025, despite a maximum drawdown of 78.61% (internal analysis). This suggests that while overbought conditions carry risks, they have historically aligned with strong momentum-driven rebounds.

Key levels to watch include:
- Support: $170 (immediate), $156 (deeper correction).
- Resistance: $230–$250 (bullish breakout target).

The MACD crossover and ascending triangle pattern on Ethereum suggest that Solana's bulls could regain control if the price breaks above $230. Open interest data also hints at reduced speculative pressure, with liquidation clusters forming between $230–$250 and $190–$174, the Phemex analysis indicates. For momentum traders, a break above $230 could signal a resumption of the uptrend toward $275–$290, a view outlined in the Blockchain.News prediction.

SUI: A Quiet Breakout in the Making

SUI's technical indicators tell a different story. The token is currently within the upper Bollinger Band at $3.80, approaching but not yet reaching overbought territory (RSI at 53.52), a point also observed in the CryptoYoog analysis. The MACD histogram at 0.0445 suggests increasing bullish momentum, while the ascending triangle pattern implies a potential breakout.

However, caution is warranted. A drop below the $3.11 support level could trigger a bearish scenario, sending the price toward $2.50 or lower, per a Blockchain.News forecast https://blockchain.news/news/20250914-price-prediction-sui-targeting-420-450-by-october-2025. For now, the market is testing key resistance levels, with a $4.20–$4.50 target in sight if institutional demand materializes, as noted in the CryptoYoog analysis. Unlike Solana, SUI's path is less about correcting overbought conditions and more about validating its breakout.

Momentum-Based Opportunities: Risks and Rewards

Both Solana and SUI present asymmetric risk-reward profiles. Solana's overbought RSI and strong MACD suggest a potential continuation of the uptrend, but a breakdown below $170 could lead to a deeper correction. SUI, on the other hand, is in a more neutral phase, with its success hinging on whether buyers can push the price above $3.80 and sustain it.

Institutional tailwinds further tilt the scales. Bitcoin ETF inflows and on-chain accumulation by long-term holders indicate that the broader market is not in a bear phase but rather a correction within a larger bull cycle, the Phemex analysis finds. For altcoins, this means that dips could be buying opportunities-if fundamentals and technicals align.

Conclusion: Navigating the Overbought Maze

The October 2025 crash was a wake-up call for leveraged positions, but it also created a fertile ground for undervalued altcoins. Solana and SUI stand out as assets with strong technical setups and institutional narratives. While Solana's momentum is more immediate, SUI's breakout potential offers a longer-term play. For investors, the key is to balance risk management with the recognition that the crypto market's resilience often defies traditional overbought thresholds.

As the market digests macroeconomic headwinds and regulatory clarity, these altcoins could serve as proxies for the broader bull case-provided they hold their critical levels.