Ultrapar Holdings Outlook: Bullish Technicals and Mixed Analyst Views

Market Snapshot: Bullish Momentum

Ultrapar Holdings (UGP.N) is showing strong technical support with bullish signals dominating the chart, suggesting cautious optimism for near-term gains.

News Highlights

Recent global and regional developments could impact Ultrapar's operations: Colombia's E&P investment rise may boost global demand for energy services and infrastructure, potentially benefiting Ultrapar's operations in the region. President Tinubu's executive order aims to cut project costs and boost Nigeria's oil and gas sector, which could indirectly affect regional energy dynamics and competition. OPEC+ discussions on increasing oil output beyond 411,000 barrels per day could lower global oil prices, influencing Ultrapar’s market environment.

Analyst Views & Fundamentals

The analyst landscape for Ultrapar is mixed. The simple average rating is 5.00, while the performance-weighted rating is 2.75, indicating some divergence in expectations. The lone recent analyst, Bruno Amorim of Goldman Sachs, issued a "Strong Buy" rating on September 26, although historical performance shows a 50% win rate with an average return of 0.52% over past predictions.

Currently, the stock is down by -11.82%, and the weighted expectations align with this decline, suggesting market neutrality.

Key Fundamental Metrics

Revenue-to-Market Value (Revenue-MV): 2.63 (internal diagnostic score: 7.82)Price-to-Sales (PS): 0.63 (score: 7.17)Gross Profit Margin (GPM): 2.34% (score: 12.50)Net Profit Margin (NPM): 2.47% (score: 13.18)Asset-to-Market Value (Asset-MV): -0.44 (score: 17.86)Cash-to-Market Value (Cash-MV): 3.12 (score: 14.77)

These metrics indicate a relatively strong balance sheet and operational efficiency, though mixed market value indicators require closer monitoring.

Money-Flow Trends

Fund flows for Ultrapar are predominantly positive, with both large and small investors showing inflows. The overall inflow ratio is 0.54, and all block sizes (small to extra-large) show positive trends, suggesting broad support for the stock. This aligns with the technical strength seen in the charts and signals confidence from market participants.

Key Technical Signals

Technically, UGP.N is showing positive momentum with two bullish indicators and no bearish ones in the last five days. The internal diagnostic technical score is 7.57, indicating a cautious and optimistic outlook.

Indicator Details

Williams %R Oversold: Score: 7.95 – Bullish bias; seen 45 times historically with a 64.44% win rate and an average return of 1.57%.Bearish Engulfing: Score: 8.13 – Strong bullish; only four historical signals with a perfect 100% win rate and an average return of 3.17%.MACD Death Cross: Score: 6.62 – Neutral rise; nine historical instances with a 66.67% win rate and an average return of -0.37%.

Recent Chart Patterns

2025-12-05: Bearish Engulfing and MACD Death Cross occurred together.2025-12-08 to 2025-12-12: Multiple instances of Williams %R Oversold were observed, indicating a potential short-term bounce.

These patterns suggest a volatile but generally bullish technical environment for Ultrapar Holdings.

Conclusion

Ultrapar Holdings is currently supported by both strong technical signals and positive money flows, with a mixed but cautiously optimistic analyst landscape. With an internal diagnostic technical score of 7.57 and a fundamental score of 7.82, it’s a stock to watch closely for those with a medium-term horizon. Investors might consider monitoring the next earnings report for additional confirmation of the bullish trend or a potential pull-back opportunity.