Ultra-High-Net-Worth Spending Is Rewriting the Rules of Scarcity—Hermès and Basquiat Define the Divide

The engine of the luxury market is no longer the mass affluent. It is the ultra-high-net-worth (UHNW) population, defined as individuals with wealth exceeding $30 million. This group, numbering just over half a million globally, controls a staggering $59.8 trillion in collective net worth. Their spending power is immense, with global spending on luxury goods and services totaling an estimated $290 billion in 2024. That figure accounts for a full 21% of all individual luxury expenditure, a disproportionate share that underscores their market dominance.

Their influence is not just about volume, but about a distinct and evolving set of priorities. UHNW spending is increasingly selective, favoring assets that combine proven scarcity with enduring cultural capital. This is evident across sectors. In art, the market has deepened its selectivity, with growth concentrated at the top end and in historically validated names, while the middle tier remains sluggish. Experts expect further stabilization in 2026 to be even more selective. The same logic applies to luxury goods, where purchases of private jets, yachts, and high-end real estate are the ultimate expressions of wealth and exclusivity.

This influence extends far beyond individual purchases. The UHNW population wields power through extensive personal and professional networks that act as powerful referral systems and trendsetters. Their choices signal quality and legitimacy, shaping demand across the entire luxury ecosystem. In essence, they are not just consumers; they are the arbiters of what constitutes a valuable asset in a world of concentrated wealth.

Asset Class Performance: The Selectivity Divide

The UHNW spending engine manifests its selectivity through stark divergence across asset classes. In art, proven scarcity and historical validation are the only currencies that matter. The record sale of Jean-Michel Basquiat's Crowns (Peso Neto) for $48.34 million last November is the ultimate proof. That piece, an early work by a canonized artist, sold 38% above its low estimate and was backed by a guarantee-a clear signal of high conviction. This is the new market logic: growth is concentrated at the top end, driven by historically validated names and institutionally recognized scarcity. The broader market reflects this, with experts expecting further stabilization in 2026 to be even more selective.

The story is different for luxury goods like Birkin bags, where brand prestige alone is facing pressure. The resale market for these iconic Hermès handbags has cooled significantly. According to Bernstein Research, the average resale premium for Birkin and Kelly bags has fallen from 2.2 times its original retail value in 2022 to 1.4 times as of last month. This means a bag bought new for $10,000 fetched about $22,200 at auction two years ago, but now sells for roughly $14,000. While high-profile, provenance-driven sales-like those of bags once owned by Jane Birkin-still command millions, they are outliers. The broader trend shows a market normalizing after pandemic highs, with rising supply and growing numbers of secondhand resellers putting pressure on prices.

This divergence is structural. Basquiat's early works are rewarded because their scarcity is absolute and their cultural capital is institutionalized. Birkin bags, by contrast, rely on brand exclusivity and a complex sales process, which can be replicated or diluted. As luxury experts note, aspirational buyers now face headwinds from inflation and a slowing job market, reducing demand. The bottom line is that in a selective market, not all scarcity is created equal. Proven, historical scarcity is a durable store of value. Brand-driven scarcity, without that deeper validation, is more vulnerable to economic shifts.

Corporate Resilience and the Investment Lens

For luxury brands, the selective spending shift is a test of operational discipline. Hermès provides a clear case study in how a company can adapt. The group entered 2026 with hard proof of resilience, not hype. Its Q4 2025 revenue rose 9.8% at constant exchange rates to around €4.1 billion, comfortably ahead of market expectations. This strength was powered by double-digit growth in the Americas at 12.1%, demonstrating its ability to capture demand in key affluent regions.

The strategy behind this performance is deliberate. Hermès controls its own scarcity. It maintains a policy of intentionally high price at which it is sold and limits distribution to boutiques on unpredictable schedules. This creates artificial scarcity and exclusivity, a classic Veblen good dynamic. The brand also raises prices systematically, with U.S. prices rising 4.4% to 6.4% in May 2025 due to tariffs and other factors. This controlled production and high retail pricing create a durable, expensive product that supports its premium positioning, even as the broader resale market for its iconic Birkin bags cools.

For investors, this divergence is the key. It highlights a fundamental distinction in asset value. On one side are assets with inherent, historically validated scarcity-like a guaranteed early Basquiat, whose cultural capital is institutionally recognized. On the other are assets reliant on brand hype and perceived exclusivity, like the Birkin bag. The resale premium for Birkins has fallen, signaling that the market is normalizing after pandemic highs and that brand-driven scarcity is more vulnerable to economic headwinds. Hermès's corporate resilience, built on controlled supply and pricing power, shows how a brand can navigate this shift. Yet the cooling resale market for its most famous product serves as a reminder: in a selective market, only the deepest forms of scarcity endure.

Catalysts and Watchpoints

The selectivity thesis now faces its forward-looking test. The market will confirm or challenge this divide through a few key catalysts. First, monitor high-profile, guaranteed art sales. The Basquiat record sale of $48.34 million last November was a powerful signal of UHNW confidence in tangible, historically validated assets. Future sales of similar caliber-especially those backed by guarantees-will serve as leading indicators of whether this deep selectivity is a durable trend or a temporary peak.

Second, track the operational health of brands like Hermès. Its Q4 2025 revenue rose 9.8% to around €4.1 billion, powered by double-digit growth in the Americas. Watch for the sustainability of this momentum, particularly in key affluent markets. The brand's ability to maintain its systematic price increases and controlled distribution will be critical. Any sign of pricing power erosion would directly challenge the model of brand-driven scarcity.

Finally, watch for any acceleration in secondhand luxury sales. The broader market for Birkin bags is cooling, but the underlying trend of consumers turning to resale platforms is structural. A J.P. Morgan survey found 60% of consumers across the U.S. and Europe use resale platforms. If this behavior spreads beyond niche items and into core brand categories, it would signal deeper consumer pressure and test the durability of luxury brand premiums. The bottom line is that selectivity is a two-way street: it rewards proven scarcity while exposing more vulnerable forms of exclusivity to economic headwinds.