Ulta Beauty Slides to 471st in Daily Volume as Earnings and Valuation Concerns Weigh

Market Snapshot

On November 20, 2025, , . This marked the stock’s 471st position in daily trading volume among U.S. equities, . Over the past month, the stock has fallen 3.53%, . The decline came despite broader market gains, .

Key Drivers

Ulta Beauty’s recent underperformance reflects a combination of earnings-related concerns, valuation pressures, and broader retail sector dynamics. The company’s upcoming earnings report, scheduled for late November 2025, has drawn significant investor attention. , a 13.04% decline from the same quarter in 2024. While revenue is expected to rise 7.12% year-over-year to $2.71 billion, the EPS contraction highlights margin compression. This aligns with the company’s August 2025 earnings report, , , . Management also flagged “uncertain consumer demand” for the remainder of the fiscal year, , .

Valuation metrics further underscore investor caution. , indicating a premium to peers. , , suggests the stock is overvalued relative to its expected earnings growth. This premium is at odds with the company’s recent operational challenges, .

Analyst sentiment remains mixed. The Zacks Rank system, which evaluates earnings estimate revisions, places Ulta at a #3 (Hold) rating. While the consensus EPS estimate has risen slightly by 0.15% over the past month, this optimism contrasts with the company’s trailing performance. Among 25 analysts, the consensus is a “Moderate Buy,” supported by 12 “Strong Buy” ratings and a raised price target of $680 by UBS. However, , reached in October, , and its recent five-day losing streak has exacerbated investor concerns.

The broader retail sector context also weighs on Ulta. Competitors like Target (TGT) and Macy’s (M) have shown mixed performance, with Sally Beauty (SBH) declining sharply. , while the largest among U.S. beauty retailers, faces pressure from rising acquisition costs and the shift to first-party data strategies. Additionally, Haut.AI’s recent AI-driven skincare personalization tool, though a strategic partnership, has yet to demonstrate a direct impact on Ulta’s sales or customer retention metrics.

In summary, Ulta Beauty’s stock faces a confluence of short-term earnings headwinds, elevated valuation metrics, and sector-specific challenges. While analysts remain cautiously optimistic about long-term growth, the company’s ability to stabilize margins, manage inventory, and deliver on guidance will be critical in determining its near-term trajectory.