Ulta Beauty Set to Exceed Earnings Expectations with Favorable Analyst Outlook

Ulta Beauty (ULTA) is set to announce Q2 earnings on August 28th, with analysts predicting EPS of $5.11 and revenue of $2.67 billion. The stock has exceeded EPS expectations 88% of the time and revenue predictions 63% over the past two years. Analysts have set a one-year price target range of $389.11 to $640.00, with an average target price of $541.66. The consensus recommendation from 27 brokerage firms is 2.3, indicating an "Outperform" status.

Ulta Beauty (ULTA) is set to release its second-quarter earnings on August 28th, with analysts predicting an earnings per share (EPS) of $5.11 and revenue of $2.67 billion. The stock has a history of exceeding EPS expectations 88% of the time and revenue predictions 63% over the past two years. Analysts have set a one-year price target range of $389.11 to $640.00, with an average target price of $541.66. The consensus recommendation from 27 brokerage firms is 2.3, indicating an "Outperform" status.

Analysts expect Ulta Beauty to report a quarterly profit of $230.6 million, or $5.10 a share, according to FactSet [1]. This compares to $252.6 million, or $5.30 a share, for the same period a year earlier. The beauty retailer is projected to report $2.68 billion in revenue, up from $2.55 billion in the same period a year ago [1]. Analysts modeled comparable sales up 2.9%, compared to a decline of 1.2% in the year-ago period [1].

Investors will be paying close attention to any commentary regarding the potential impact of tariffs. Ulta Beauty said only about 1% of its merchandise receipts were direct imports, and noted it felt confident it could mitigate any cost increases [1]. The company's resilience to tariffs is a positive factor highlighted by analysts.

Additionally, investors will be listening for any management commentary regarding Ulta's market share, particularly in its e-commerce segment. Ulta faces long-term risks of market share loss as competitors like Amazon and TikTok Shop push promotions [1]. The company will likely need to match those online channels' promotional cadence to keep shoppers, which could pressure margins [1].

Barclays recently upgraded Ulta Beauty to "Overweight" with a price target of $589, reflecting a positive outlook on the company's future performance [2]. The investment bank cited the company's resilience to tariffs, margin expansion, and strategic changes implemented by CEO Kecia Steelman since taking the helm in January 2025 [2].

Ulta Beauty's financial performance has been impressive, with a market capitalization above industry benchmarks, positive revenue trends, and strong profitability and cost management [3]. The company's net margin of 10.71% and return on equity (ROE) of 12.4% demonstrate its effective utilization of equity capital and strong financial health [3].

Investors should closely monitor Ulta Beauty's earnings report and the broader market conditions to assess the potential impact on the stock price. The company's track record of exceeding earnings expectations and the positive analyst outlook suggest that Ulta Beauty is well-positioned to continue its growth trajectory.

References:
[1] https://www.marketwatch.com/story/ulta-beauty-expected-to-post-lower-2q-profit-higher-rev-earnings-preview-44ecc1c7
[2] https://www.benzinga.com/insights/earnings/25/08/47360969/a-glimpse-of-ulta-beautys-earnings-potential
[3] https://www.ainvest.com/news/barclays-upgrades-ulta-overweight-raises-price-target-589-2508/