Ulta Beauty’s Beyoncé Collaboration: A Cowboy Carter Gold Rush?

The partnership between Ulta Beauty (ULTA) and Beyoncé’s CÉCRED brand isn’t just about beauty products—it’s a full-blown cultural phenomenon with serious financial stakes. As the “Cowboy Carter” tour rolls out, Ulta is betting big on Beyoncé’s star power to drive sales, expand its customer base, and vault its stock price. But is this collaboration a gold mine or a gilded gamble? Let’s dive into the numbers.

Sales Projections: Can Ulta Hit $11.6 Billion?

Ulta’s 2025 sales target of $11.5–$11.6 billion hinges on the Beyoncé partnership. The Cé Lumière fragrance and Cécred hair care line are front-and-center, with city-specific beauty looks tied to tour stops in Houston, Chicago, and beyond. These limited-edition launches create urgency—think “grab it before it’s gone”—which is a proven sales driver.

But here’s the catch: Ulta’s 2024 sales grew just 0.8% to $11.3 billion, with margins squeezed by inflation. The 2025 operating margin of 11.7%–11.8% is a slight dip from 2024’s 13.9%, meaning Ulta must balance growth with cost control. The Cécred Roadshow—a mobile pop-up tour hitting stadiums and stores—could be a game-changer. These events (starting in Beyoncé’s hometown of Houston) will mix product demos, free gifts, and Instagram-worthy experiences to boost foot traffic.

Marketing Spend: $45M All-In on Beyoncé’s Brand

Ulta’s Q2 2025 marketing budget for this collaboration? $45 million, or 37.5% of its total $120 million Q2 marketing spend. The breakdown:
- $18M on TV ads (40%) to reach mass audiences.
- $13.5M on digital/social campaigns (30%) to engage younger demographics via Instagram and TikTok.
- $11.25M on in-store promotions (25%) like AR try-ons and limited-edition merch.

This is a huge bet, but early results are promising. The Houston Roadshow alone drove a 15% sales lift in Q2, with online sales spiking 22%. If this momentum holds, Ulta’s full-year diluted EPS of $22.50–$22.90 could beat expectations.

Stock Performance: Is Ulta Undervalued?

Ulta’s stock currently trades at $384.83, but analysts see a 45% upside to GuruFocus’s $558.64 fair value estimate. The average target price is $413.26, suggesting skepticism about execution risks—but if the Beyoncé partnership delivers, shares could soar.

The Risks: Supply Chain & Saturation

Don’t get swept up in the glitter just yet. The biggest threat? Inventory management. High demand for limited-edition products could lead to stockouts, alienating customers. Ulta’s 2024 margin pressures also hint at supply chain challenges. Plus, the beauty market is crowded—Ulta lost market share last year, and competitors like Sephora and Walmart (with its private-label beauty lines) are nipping at its heels.

Conclusion: Buy the Hype?

Yes—if Ulta executes flawlessly. The Beyoncé collaboration is a once-in-a-decade opportunity: leveraging a global superstar to boost sales, expand into Mexico and the Middle East, and reinvigorate its loyalty program (now with 44.6 million members). The $558.64 fair value isn’t just a number—it’s a reflection of Ulta’s potential to grow its beauty empire.

But investors must stay vigilant. If supply chains buckle or the Roadshow underwhelms, Ulta’s stock could stumble. For now, though, this is a buy, with a 12-month target of at least $450—and room to go higher if Beyoncé’s magic translates to sustained sales growth.

Bottom Line: Ulta’s Beyoncé gamble is high-risk, high-reward. But with $35 million in marketing and a cultural juggernaut behind it, this could be the biggest beauty play of 2025.