Udemy Skyrockets 8.23%: Can This Bullish Surge Sustain Momentum in a Volatile Market?

Summary
• Cantor Fitzgerald raises Udemy’s price target to $10, signaling 43% upside potential
• Udemy reports Q2 EPS of $0.16, beating estimates by 33%
• Intraday swing of $0.855 (7.23 to 8.09) highlights sharp volatility

Udemy (UDMY) has ignited a post-market rally with a staggering 8.23% surge to $7.565, defying broader market caution. This sharp rebound follows Cantor Fitzgerald’s upgraded price target and Udemy’s Q2 earnings outperformance. With analysts projecting a 48% average upside and the stock trading near its 52-week high of $10.61, the question looms: is this a short-covering bounce or the start of a meaningful turnaround?

Analyst Optimism and Earnings Outperformance Fuel Post-Market Rally
Udemy’s dramatic 8.23% rebound was catalyzed by Cantor Fitzgerald’s upgraded price target to $10 (up from $9) and its Q2 earnings beat. The firm cited 'early signs of success' under new CEO Hugo Sarrazin, including a shift to a recurring subscription model and progress in AI-powered education. Udemy’s EPS of $0.16 (vs. $0.12 expected) and $200M revenue (vs. $196.79M expected) signaled improved operational discipline. Analysts at Needham and others reaffirmed bullish ratings, creating a self-fulfilling prophecy as algorithmic trading systems amplified the momentum.

Options Playbook: Capitalizing on Volatility with UDMY20250815C7.5 and UDMY20250919C7.5
• MACD: 0.04145 (bullish crossover above signal line 0.016218)
• RSI: 53.19 (neutral but approaching oversold 30 threshold)
• Bollinger Bands: 7.42 (upper) / 6.998 (middle) / 6.575 (lower) - price near upper band
• 200D MA: 7.7478 (current price $7.565 trading below key resistance)

Technical indicators suggest a potential reversal pattern as UDMY approaches its 52-week high. The 53.19 RSI reading shows momentum waning but not overbought, while the MACD histogram at 0.025232 indicates strengthening bullish momentum. Key support/resistance levels at 6.9896–7.0760 (200D MA) and 6.9768–6.995 (30D MA) will be critical for trend continuation.

Top Option 1: UDMY20250815C7.5
• Code: UDMY20250815C7.5
• Type: Call
• Strike: $7.50
• Expiration: 2025-08-15
• IV Ratio: 43.79% (moderate)
• Leverage: 25.12%
• Delta: 0.546794 (high sensitivity to price)
• Theta: -0.019011 (rapid time decay)
• Gamma: 0.573507 (high sensitivity to price changes)
• Turnover: $40,330

This at-the-money call offers explosive potential with 25% leverage and 0.57 gamma. A 5% upside to $7.94 (current price +5%) would yield a 32% payoff (max(0, 7.94 - 7.50)).

Top Option 2: UDMY20250919C7.5
• Code: UDMY20250919C7.5
• Type: Call
• Strike: $7.50
• Expiration: 2025-09-19
• IV Ratio: 45.56% (moderate)
• Leverage: 13.70%
• Delta: 0.558997 (high sensitivity)
• Theta: -0.008109 (slower decay)
• Gamma: 0.307466 (moderate sensitivity)
• Turnover: $550

This longer-dated call provides more time for a 52-week high breakout. A 5% move would generate a 26% payoff (max(0, 7.94 - 7.50)).

Aggressive bulls should target UDMY20250815C7.5 into a close above $7.74 (200D MA). If $7.74 holds, consider rolling into UDMY20250919C7.5 for extended exposure.

Backtest Udemy Stock Performance
The backtest of UDMY's performance after an intraday increase of 8% shows mixed results. While the stock experienced a positive surge, the overall short-term performance was lackluster, with the 3-Day win rate at 49.44%, the 10-Day win rate at 48.76%, and the 30-Day win rate at 40.90%. The returns over these periods were negative, with a 3-Day return of -0.36%, a 10-Day return of -1.10%, and a 30-Day return of -2.97%. The maximum return during the backtest period was only 0.03%, which occurred on the first day after the intraday surge, suggesting that the positive momentum did not translate into sustained long-term gains.

Bullish Technicals and Analyst Consensus Point to $10.36 Target
Udemy’s 8.23% surge validates the 11 analysts’ $10.36 average price target and 48% projected upside. With RSI near oversold levels and MACD in bullish territory, technicals align with the 9/9 analyst consensus (2.3 'Outperform' rating). The stock’s $7.565 level is critical - a break above 200D MA at $7.7478 would confirm a medium-term bull case. Sector leader Netflix (NFLX) falling -0.91% highlights UDMY’s divergence, suggesting the market is isolating Udemy’s turnaround story. Investors should watch the $7.235 intraday low as a key support; a retest and hold here would cement the $10.36 fair value thesis. Aggressive bulls should target UDMY20250815C7.5 into a close above $7.74.