UBS upgrades Mosaic Company to Buy, citing strong market fundamentals and bullish projections for 2025 and 2026.

UBS has upgraded Mosaic Company (MOS) to a Buy rating due to strong market fundamentals and projected EBITDA exceeding consensus expectations. Analysts' average price target for MOS is $40.03, with a potential upside of 7.81% from the current share price. The consensus recommendation from 19 brokerage firms positions MOS at an average rating of 2.2, indicating an "Outperform" status.

July 2, 2025

UBS has upgraded Mosaic Co (MOS) to a Buy rating, reflecting a positive outlook on the company's future performance. The upgrade, announced by analyst Joshua Spector on July 23, 2025, is driven by strong market fundamentals and projected EBITDA exceeding consensus expectations [1].

The new price target set by UBS is $45.00 USD, significantly higher than the current share price of $37.08. This adjustment indicates a fresh perspective on MOS's potential growth, with no prior target price from UBS [1].

Analysts' average one-year price target for MOS is $40.03, with a high estimate of $49.00 and a low estimate of $31.00. This average target implies an upside of 7.97% from the current price, suggesting a positive outlook from the broader market [1].

The consensus recommendation from 19 brokerage firms positions MOS at an average rating of 2.2, indicating an "Outperform" status. This rating scale ranges from 1 to 5, with 1 signifying a Strong Buy and 5 denoting a Sell [1].

GuruFocus estimates the GF Value for MOS in one year at $30.97, suggesting a downside of 16.47% from the current price. GF Value is calculated based on historical multiples, past business growth, and future performance estimates [1].

Key Business Developments and Positive Points

Mosaic Co reported strong financials for the first quarter of 2025, with net income of $238 million and adjusted EBITDA of $544 million. The company's phosphate and potash realized prices exceeded guidance ranges, and it is making progress in normalizing production costs. Mosaic's market access, particularly in Brazil, is a key driver of growth, and the company's biosciences division is experiencing rapid revenue growth [2].

The opening of Mosaic's new blending, storage, and distribution plant in Palmeirante, Brazil, is expected to enhance the company's reach in the market and contribute significantly to its growth plan. The plant has an annual processing capacity of 1 million tons and is expected to generate a margin of $30-$40 per ton, implying an internal rate of return of over 20% [3].

Negative Points and Challenges

Despite the positive outlook, Mosaic Co faces several challenges. Global trade conflicts and geopolitical forces are creating uncertainties in the US agriculture sector. Phosphate and potash production costs have been impacted by planned turnarounds and weather-related curtailments, affecting profitability. Free cash flow generation was constrained by typical working capital seasonality in the first quarter, and potential demand headwinds in the second half of the year may pose a challenge due to fertilizer affordability [2].

References

[1] https://www.gurufocus.com/news/2998429/mosaic-mos-upgraded-to-buy-by-ubs-price-target-announced-at-45-mos-stock-news
[2] https://www.gurufocus.com/news/2996322/mosaic-mos-upgraded-to-buy-fertilizer-pricing-optimism-mos-stock-news
[3] https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/mos-unveils-new-facility-palmeirante-expands-presence-brazil